Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 26/09, 11:30

Prediction: IF Gnistan (W) vs Ilves (W)

Team pages: IF Gnistan (W) · Ilves (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

IF Gnistan (W)1.6

Ilves (W)2

1X2

30% 23% 47%

IF Gnistan (W) Draw Ilves (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

IF Gnistan (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWLLLL

Ilves (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

IF Gnistan (W) 1–1–1 Ilves (W) (3 last)

Ilves (W)1-2IF Gnistan (W)
Ilves (W)2-2IF Gnistan (W)
IF Gnistan (W)2-3Ilves (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IF Gnistan (W) 1428 · Ilves (W) 1447

	IF Gnistan (W)	Draw	Ilves (W)
Our model	30%	23%	46%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IF Gnistan (W)	Ilves (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:30 +8’	3.00	3.90	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan (W) 1–1–1 Ilves (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	IF Gnistan (W)
18/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	IF Gnistan (W)
17/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	2-3 HT 2-1	Ilves (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	20	17	1	2	57	18	52
2	KuPS (W)	20	13	2	5	40	25	41
3	Aland United (W)	20	13	1	6	53	28	40
4	HPS (W)	20	10	5	5	30	23	35
5	Ilves (W)	20	7	1	12	33	42	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	20	5	1	14	28	50	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IF Gnistan (W)	Ilves (W)
HJK (W)	1-6 L	2-5 L
HPS (W)	1-3 L	0-1 L
KuPS (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Aland United (W)	2-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ilves (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IF Gnistan (W)

WLDLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	1-6	1	0	L
12/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
29/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
23/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
15/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
25/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
18/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
12/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
05/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	1-0	5	4	W

Ilves (W)

LWDWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
12/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-3	2-5	1	1	L
29/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
22/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
15/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
08/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
25/07	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
18/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-2	4	0	D
12/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-2	3	4	W
04/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-2	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IF Gnistan (W) vs Ilves (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ilves (W) win (47%). Probabilities: IF Gnistan (W) 30%, draw 23%, Ilves (W) 47%.

How many goals are expected in IF Gnistan (W) vs Ilves (W)?

The model expects 3.6 goals (IF Gnistan (W) 1.6 · Ilves (W) 2), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IF Gnistan (W) vs Ilves (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.