Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: KuPS (W) vs HJK (W)

Team pages: KuPS (W) · HJK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

KuPS (W)1.13

HJK (W)1.82

1X2

22% 25% 53%

KuPS (W) Draw HJK (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

KuPS (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWWWD

HJK (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLDWWW

Head-to-head

KuPS (W) 3–3 HJK (W) (6 last)

HJK (W)0-1KuPS (W)
KuPS (W)0-1HJK (W)
HJK (W)2-0KuPS (W)
KuPS (W)2-1HJK (W)
HJK (W)1-2KuPS (W)
HJK (W)3-2KuPS (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KuPS (W) 1524 · HJK (W) 1569

	KuPS (W)	Draw	HJK (W)
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	22%	25%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK (W) (rating 1524 vs 1569).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KuPS (W)	HJK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.7	3.5 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.60

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:09 +33’	4.00	3.50	1.70
15:15 +1’	4.00	3.60▲	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS (W) 3–0–3 HJK (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HJK (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	KuPS (W)
08/07/26 Finland Cup Women	KuPS (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	HJK (W)
04/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HJK (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	KuPS (W)
02/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	HJK (W)
21/03/26 Finland Cup Women	HJK (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	KuPS (W)
12/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HJK (W)	3-2 HT 1-0	KuPS (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	20	17	1	2	57	18	52
2	KuPS (W)	20	13	2	5	40	25	41
3	Aland United (W)	20	13	1	6	53	28	40
4	HPS (W)	20	10	5	5	30	23	35
5	Ilves (W)	20	7	1	12	33	42	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	20	5	1	14	28	50	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KuPS (W)	HJK (W)
HPS (W)	0-0 D	3-3 D
Aland United (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
IF Gnistan (W)	2-0 W	6-1 W
Ilves (W)	2-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HJK (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KuPS (W)

LLLWLWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
13/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
29/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
17/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	3	5	L
25/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
18/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	5	6	L
12/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-4	8	4	L
04/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	3	3	L

HJK (W)

WWWWWLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	6-1	9	0	W
12/09	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-1	5-2	10	1	W
29/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-1	9	0	W
21/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	3-3	2	3	D
17/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
12/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	3-1	3	2	W
25/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
19/07	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-0	5	1	W
12/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	13	3	W
04/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KuPS (W) vs HJK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HJK (W) win (53%). Probabilities: KuPS (W) 22%, draw 25%, HJK (W) 53%.

How many goals are expected in KuPS (W) vs HJK (W)?

The model expects 2.95 goals (KuPS (W) 1.13 · HJK (W) 1.82), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KuPS (W) vs HJK (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.