Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: HPS (W) vs Aland United (W)

Team pages: HPS (W) · Aland United (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

HPS (W)1.57

Aland United (W)1.57

1X2

37% 25% 37%

HPS (W) Draw Aland United (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HPS (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLDWWD

Aland United (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

HPS (W) 3–1–2 Aland United (W) (6 last)

Aland United (W)2-1HPS (W)
Aland United (W)0-0HPS (W)
HPS (W)1-0Aland United (W)
HPS (W)2-1Aland United (W)
Aland United (W)6-2HPS (W)
HPS (W)3-1Aland United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS (W) 1522 · Aland United (W) 1561

	HPS (W)	Draw	Aland United (W)
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours HPS (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS (W)	Aland United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	2.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.5	3.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:20 +2’	2.40	3.60	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS (W) 3–1–2 Aland United (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	HPS (W)
28/06/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
25/04/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Aland United (W)
18/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Aland United (W)
07/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	6-2 HT 2-1	HPS (W)
28/06/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	Aland United (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	20	17	1	2	57	18	52
2	KuPS (W)	20	13	2	5	40	25	41
3	Aland United (W)	20	13	1	6	53	28	40
4	HPS (W)	20	10	5	5	30	23	35
5	Ilves (W)	20	7	1	12	33	42	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	20	5	1	14	28	50	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS (W)	Aland United (W)
KuPS (W)	0-0 D	0-2 L
IF Gnistan (W)	3-1 W	3-2 W
Ilves (W)	1-0 W	3-2 W
HJK (W)	3-3 D	1-2 L
VIFK (W)	1-1 D	6-1 W
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	1-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: HPS (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HPS (W)

WDLLWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/09	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	11	2	W
29/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
21/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
16/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
08/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-2	4	5	W
25/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
19/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
12/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
04/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	1	W

Aland United (W)

WWWWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	3-2	3	1	W
13/09	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
29/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-2	7	0	L
23/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-2	7	2	W
16/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
08/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
25/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	6-1	9	0	W
18/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
12/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	4-0	4-1	5	4	W
04/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-0	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS (W) vs Aland United (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HPS (W) win (37%). Probabilities: HPS (W) 37%, draw 25%, Aland United (W) 37%.

How many goals are expected in HPS (W) vs Aland United (W)?

The model expects 3.14 goals (HPS (W) 1.57 · Aland United (W) 1.57), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS (W) vs Aland United (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.