Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: Ilves (W) vs Aland United (W)

Team pages: Ilves (W) · Aland United (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Ilves (W)1.41

Aland United (W)2.17

1X2

24% 22% 54%

Ilves (W) Draw Aland United (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ilves (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLLLLL

Aland United (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWLL

Head-to-head

Ilves (W) 1–5 Aland United (W) (6 last)

Aland United (W)3-0Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)0-2Aland United (W)
Aland United (W)4-1Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)2-5Aland United (W)
Ilves (W)0-1Aland United (W)
Aland United (W)1-3Ilves (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilves (W) 1433 · Aland United (W) 1551

	Ilves (W)	Draw	Aland United (W)
Our model	24%	22%	54%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aland United (W) (rating 1433 vs 1551).
H2H favours Aland United (W): 5-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilves (W)	Aland United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.3	2.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	3.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:15 +7’	3.80	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilves (W) 1–0–5 Aland United (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	Ilves (W)
04/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Aland United (W)
03/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	4-1 HT 3-1	Ilves (W)
20/08/25 Finland Cup Women	Ilves (W)	2-5 HT 1-2	Aland United (W)
07/07/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Aland United (W)
20/04/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	1-3 HT 0-1	Ilves (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	19	16	1	2	51	17	49
2	KuPS (W)	19	13	1	5	40	25	40
3	Aland United (W)	19	12	1	6	50	26	37
4	HPS (W)	19	10	4	5	30	23	34
5	Ilves (W)	19	7	1	11	31	39	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	19	5	1	13	27	44	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilves (W)	Aland United (W)
HJK (W)	2-5 L	1-2 L
HPS (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
KuPS (W)	1-2 L	0-2 L
IF Gnistan (W)	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ilves (W)

LLWDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-3	2-5	1	1	L
29/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
22/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
15/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
08/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
25/07	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
18/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-2	4	0	D
12/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-2	3	4	W
04/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
27/06	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	4	1	L

Aland United (W)

DWWWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
29/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-2	7	0	L
23/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-2	7	2	W
16/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
08/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
25/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	6-1	9	0	W
18/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
12/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	4-0	4-1	5	4	W
04/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
28/06	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilves (W) vs Aland United (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aland United (W) win (54%). Probabilities: Ilves (W) 24%, draw 22%, Aland United (W) 54%.

How many goals are expected in Ilves (W) vs Aland United (W)?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Ilves (W) 1.41 · Aland United (W) 2.17), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilves (W) vs Aland United (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.