Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 03/10, 14:00

Prediction: Ilves (W) vs KuPS (W)

Team pages: Ilves (W) · KuPS (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Ilves (W)1.15

KuPS (W)2.28

1X2

17% 21% 62%

Ilves (W) Draw KuPS (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ilves (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLLLLW

KuPS (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Ilves (W) 1–1–4 KuPS (W) (6 last)

KuPS (W)2-1Ilves (W)
KuPS (W)2-4Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)2-3KuPS (W)
Ilves (W)3-3KuPS (W)
KuPS (W)8-0Ilves (W)
KuPS (W)2-0Ilves (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilves (W) 1458 · KuPS (W) 1522

	Ilves (W)	Draw	KuPS (W)
Our model	17%	21%	62%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS (W) (rating 1458 vs 1522).
H2H favours KuPS (W): 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilves (W)	KuPS (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.33

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.77

2 (-1.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.50 ★
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +6’	5.25	4.33	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:00 +22’	4.90	4.25	1.45
02:50 +118’	4.96▲	4.50▲	1.42▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilves (W) 1–1–4 KuPS (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Ilves (W)
12/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	2-4 HT 0-1	Ilves (W)
09/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	2-3 HT 1-1	KuPS (W)
30/07/25 Finland Cup Women	Ilves (W)	3-3 HT 1-2	KuPS (W)
17/08/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	8-0 HT 4-0	Ilves (W)
03/08/24 Finland Cup Women	KuPS (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Ilves (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	21	18	1	2	58	18	55
2	KuPS (W)	21	13	2	6	40	26	41
3	Aland United (W)	21	13	1	7	53	29	40
4	HPS (W)	21	11	5	5	31	23	38
5	Ilves (W)	21	8	1	12	36	42	25
6	IF Gnistan (W)	21	5	1	15	28	53	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilves (W)	KuPS (W)
IF Gnistan (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Aland United (W)	2-3 L	2-0 W
HJK (W)	2-5 L	0-1 L
HPS (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ilves (W)

WDWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	3-0	2	4	W
19/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
12/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-3	2-5	1	1	L
29/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
22/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
15/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
08/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
25/07	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
18/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-2	4	0	D
12/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-2	3	4	W

KuPS (W)

LLWLWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
19/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
13/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
29/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
17/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	3	5	L
25/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
18/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	5	6	L
12/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-4	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilves (W) vs KuPS (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KuPS (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Ilves (W) 17%, draw 21%, KuPS (W) 62%.

How many goals are expected in Ilves (W) vs KuPS (W)?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Ilves (W) 1.15 · KuPS (W) 2.28), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilves (W) vs KuPS (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.