Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 03/10, 17:00

Prediction: Aland United (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)

Team pages: Aland United (W) · IF Gnistan (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Aland United (W)3.1

IF Gnistan (W)1.1

1X2

78% 13% 8%

Aland United (W) Draw IF Gnistan (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Aland United (W) 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLWL

IF Gnistan (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Aland United (W) 3–0 IF Gnistan (W) (3 last)

IF Gnistan (W)2-3Aland United (W)
IF Gnistan (W)1-4Aland United (W)
Aland United (W)6-1IF Gnistan (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aland United (W) 1562 · IF Gnistan (W) 1385

	Aland United (W)	Draw	IF Gnistan (W)
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aland United (W) (rating 1562 vs 1385).
H2H favours Aland United (W): 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aland United (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.3	0.9 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.8	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.90

2 (+2.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.49 ★
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +14’	1.14	7.00	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:00 +22’	1.13	7.49	9.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aland United (W) 3–0–0 IF Gnistan (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	2-3 HT 1-0	Aland United (W)
31/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	1-4 HT 0-3	Aland United (W)
28/03/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	6-1 HT 2-1	IF Gnistan (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	21	18	1	2	58	18	55
2	KuPS (W)	21	13	2	6	40	26	41
3	Aland United (W)	21	13	1	7	53	29	40
4	HPS (W)	21	11	5	5	31	23	38
5	Ilves (W)	21	8	1	12	36	42	25
6	IF Gnistan (W)	21	5	1	15	28	53	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aland United (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
HPS (W)	0-1 L	1-3 L
Ilves (W)	3-2 W	0-3 L
KuPS (W)	0-2 L	0-2 L
HJK (W)	1-2 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aland United (W)

WWWWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
19/09	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	3-2	3	1	W
13/09	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
29/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-2	7	0	L
23/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-2	7	2	W
16/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
08/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
25/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	6-1	9	0	W
18/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
12/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	4-0	4-1	5	4	W

IF Gnistan (W)

LDLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
19/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	1-6	1	0	L
12/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
29/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
23/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
15/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
25/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
18/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
12/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aland United (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aland United (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Aland United (W) 78%, draw 13%, IF Gnistan (W) 8%.

How many goals are expected in Aland United (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Aland United (W) 3.1 · IF Gnistan (W) 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Aland United (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.