Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 18/10, 13:00

Prediction: IF Gnistan (W) vs KuPS (W)

Team pages: IF Gnistan (W) · KuPS (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

IF Gnistan (W)0.68

KuPS (W)2.56

1X2

7% 15% 78%

IF Gnistan (W) Draw KuPS (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

IF Gnistan (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLLLL

KuPS (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWDLD

Head-to-head

IF Gnistan (W) 0–5 KuPS (W) (5 last)

KuPS (W)2-0IF Gnistan (W)
IF Gnistan (W)0-1KuPS (W)
IF Gnistan (W)0-2KuPS (W)
KuPS (W)2-1IF Gnistan (W)
IF Gnistan (W)0-2KuPS (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IF Gnistan (W) 1383 · KuPS (W) 1552

	IF Gnistan (W)	Draw	KuPS (W)
Our model	7%	16%	77%
Market	8%	15%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS (W) (rating 1383 vs 1552).
H2H favours KuPS (W): 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IF Gnistan (W)	KuPS (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.7	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

112.00

X6.25

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.98

2 (-2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +11’	12.00	6.25	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan (W) 0–0–5 KuPS (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	IF Gnistan (W)
25/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	KuPS (W)
17/06/26 Finland Cup Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	KuPS (W)
22/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	IF Gnistan (W)
18/01/26 Finland Cup Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	KuPS (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	22	18	1	3	60	21	55
2	Aland United (W)	22	14	1	7	56	30	43
3	KuPS (W)	22	13	3	6	43	29	42
4	HPS (W)	22	12	5	5	34	25	41
5	Ilves (W)	22	8	2	12	39	45	26
6	IF Gnistan (W)	22	5	1	16	29	56	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IF Gnistan (W)	KuPS (W)
Aland United (W)	1-3 L	2-0 W
Ilves (W)	0-3 L	3-3 D
HJK (W)	1-6 L	0-1 L
HPS (W)	1-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IF Gnistan (W)

DLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
26/09	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
19/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	1-6	1	0	L
12/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
29/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
23/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
15/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
25/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
18/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-2	6	0	D

KuPS (W)

LWLWWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-3	4	0	D
26/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
19/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
13/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
29/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
17/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	3	5	L
25/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
18/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IF Gnistan (W) vs KuPS (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KuPS (W) win (78%). Probabilities: IF Gnistan (W) 7%, draw 15%, KuPS (W) 78%.

How many goals are expected in IF Gnistan (W) vs KuPS (W)?

The model expects 3.24 goals (IF Gnistan (W) 0.68 · KuPS (W) 2.56), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IF Gnistan (W) vs KuPS (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.