Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: HJK (W) vs Ilves (W)
Team pages: HJK (W) · Ilves (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.07Total
HJK (W)3.03
Ilves (W)1.03
1X2
HJK (W)
Draw
Ilves (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
HJK (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Ilves (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HJK (W)
6–0
Ilves (W)
(6 last)
- Ilves (W)2-5HJK (W)
- Ilves (W)1-3HJK (W)
- HJK (W)2-1Ilves (W)
- Ilves (W)1-2HJK (W)
- HJK (W)1-0Ilves (W)
- Ilves (W)0-5HJK (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HJK (W) 1522 · Ilves (W) 1424
| HJK (W) | Draw | Ilves (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 79% | 13% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.07 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK (W) (rating 1522 vs 1424).
- H2H favours HJK (W): 6-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HJK (W) | Ilves (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 5.8 | 1.5 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK (W) 6–0–0 Ilves (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 2-5 HT 1-3 | HJK (W) |
| 27/06/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 1-3 HT 0-3 | HJK (W) |
| 25/04/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Ilves (W) |
| 31/07/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | HJK (W) |
| 12/05/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ilves (W) |
| 29/07/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 0-5 HT 0-1 | HJK (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 23 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 60 | 24 | 55 |
| 2 | Aland United (W) | 23 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 59 | 30 | 46 |
| 3 | KuPS (W) | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 29 | 45 |
| 4 | HPS (W) | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 25 | 44 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 49 | 26 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 23 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 61 | 16 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HJK (W) | Ilves (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Aland United (W) | 0-3 L | 2-3 L |
| HPS (W) | 2-3 L | 0-4 L |
| KuPS (W) | 1-0 W | 3-3 D |
| IF Gnistan (W) | 6-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: HJK (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HJK (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/10 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-1 | 5-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 21/08 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 17/08 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/08 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
Ilves (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 26/09 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-3 | 2-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HJK (W) vs Ilves (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK (W) win (78%). Probabilities: HJK (W) 78%, draw 13%, Ilves (W) 9%.
How many goals are expected in HJK (W) vs Ilves (W)?
The model expects 4.07 goals (HJK (W) 3.03 · Ilves (W) 1.03), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in HJK (W) vs Ilves (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.