Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: HPS (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)

Team pages: HPS (W) · IF Gnistan (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

HPS (W)2.75

IF Gnistan (W)0.95

1X2

74% 16% 10%

HPS (W) Draw IF Gnistan (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

HPS (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWDWWW

IF Gnistan (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

HPS (W) 3–0 IF Gnistan (W) (3 last)

IF Gnistan (W)1-3HPS (W)
HPS (W)4-0IF Gnistan (W)
IF Gnistan (W)1-2HPS (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS (W) 1576 · IF Gnistan (W) 1376

	HPS (W)	Draw	IF Gnistan (W)
Our model	74%	16%	10%
Market	75%	16%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS (W) (rating 1576 vs 1376).
H2H favours HPS (W): 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	0.8 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.90

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.20▼	Bet365 1.20
X	5.00 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
2	7.50 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +4’	1.28	5.00	7.50
04:10 +7’	1.20▼	5.75▲	9.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS (W) 3–0–0 IF Gnistan (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	HPS (W)
13/06/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	IF Gnistan (W)
04/04/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	HPS (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	23	18	1	4	60	24	55
2	Aland United (W)	23	15	1	7	59	30	46
3	KuPS (W)	23	14	3	6	48	29	45
4	HPS (W)	23	13	5	5	38	25	44
5	Ilves (W)	23	8	2	13	39	49	26
6	IF Gnistan (W)	23	5	1	17	29	61	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
Ilves (W)	4-0 W	0-3 L
HJK (W)	3-2 W	1-6 L
Aland United (W)	1-0 W	1-3 L
KuPS (W)	0-0 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HPS (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HPS (W)

LWLDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
04/10	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	3-2	3	4	W
26/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/09	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/09	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	11	2	W
29/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
21/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
16/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
08/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-2	4	5	W
25/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	5	1	L

IF Gnistan (W)

LLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-5	1	5	L
03/10	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
26/09	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
19/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	1-6	1	0	L
12/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
29/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
23/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
15/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
25/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HPS (W) win (74%). Probabilities: HPS (W) 74%, draw 16%, IF Gnistan (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in HPS (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model expects 3.7 goals (HPS (W) 2.75 · IF Gnistan (W) 0.95), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.