Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Ilves (W) vs HPS (W)

Team pages: Ilves (W) · HPS (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Ilves (W)1.27

HPS (W)2.16

1X2

21% 22% 57%

Ilves (W) Draw HPS (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ilves (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLWD

HPS (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWWDWW

Head-to-head

Ilves (W) 2–4 HPS (W) (6 last)

HPS (W)1-0Ilves (W)
HPS (W)1-2Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)1-0HPS (W)
HPS (W)1-0Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)0-2HPS (W)
Ilves (W)0-1HPS (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilves (W) 1459 · HPS (W) 1531

	Ilves (W)	Draw	HPS (W)
Our model	21%	22%	57%
Market	21%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS (W) (rating 1459 vs 1531).
H2H favours HPS (W): 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilves (W)	HPS (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.3	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +26’	4.20	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilves (W) 2–0–4 HPS (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Ilves (W)
25/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Ilves (W)
22/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
31/08/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Ilves (W)
09/06/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
26/08/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	HPS (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	22	18	1	3	60	21	55
2	Aland United (W)	22	14	1	7	56	30	43
3	KuPS (W)	22	13	3	6	43	29	42
4	HPS (W)	22	12	5	5	34	25	41
5	Ilves (W)	22	8	2	12	39	45	26
6	IF Gnistan (W)	22	5	1	16	29	56	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilves (W)	HPS (W)
KuPS (W)	3-3 D	0-0 D
IF Gnistan (W)	3-0 W	3-1 W
Aland United (W)	2-3 L	1-0 W
HJK (W)	2-5 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HPS (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ilves (W)

DWLLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	3-3	3	0	D
26/09	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	3-0	2	4	W
19/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
12/09	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-3	2-5	1	1	L
29/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
22/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
15/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
08/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
25/07	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
18/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-2	4	0	D

HPS (W)

LLWLDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	3-2	3	4	W
26/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/09	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/09	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	11	2	W
29/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
21/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
16/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
08/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-2	4	5	W
25/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
19/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilves (W) vs HPS (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HPS (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Ilves (W) 21%, draw 22%, HPS (W) 57%.

How many goals are expected in Ilves (W) vs HPS (W)?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Ilves (W) 1.27 · HPS (W) 2.16), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilves (W) vs HPS (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.