Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 23/10, 20:30

Prediction: Casertana vs Bari

Team pages: Casertana · Bari

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Casertana1.1

Bari1.09

1X2

35% 31% 34%

Casertana Draw Bari

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Casertana 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLLWD

Bari 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWLWD

Head-to-head

Casertana 0–1–2 Bari (3 last)

Bari1-1Casertana
Casertana0-2Bari
Casertana0-3Bari

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casertana 1517 · Bari 1545

	Casertana	Draw	Bari
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bari: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casertana	Bari
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	1.6 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +2’	2.55	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casertana 0–1–2 Bari

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/21 Italy Serie C Group C	Bari	1-1 HT 1-1	Casertana
22/11/20 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	0-2 HT 0-1	Bari
15/12/19 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	0-3 HT 0-0	Bari

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	10	8	1	1	26	13	25
2	Bari	10	6	2	2	13	6	20
3	Sorrento Calcio	10	6	1	3	14	10	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	5	2	3	18	9	17
5	Catania	10	5	1	4	18	12	16
6	Casertana	10	4	4	2	15	13	16
7	Cavese	10	4	3	3	20	17	15
8	Monopoli	10	4	3	3	11	9	15
9	Scafatese	9	3	5	1	15	13	14
10	Salernitana	10	3	5	2	14	12	14
11	Inter Milan U23	9	4	1	4	18	17	13
12	AZ Picerno ASD	10	4	0	6	17	18	12
13	Barletta	10	2	5	3	13	15	11
14	Foggia	10	3	2	5	10	13	11
15	Casarano	10	3	2	5	12	18	11
16	Team Altamura	10	3	2	5	7	14	11
17	AC Savoia 1908	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
18	Giugliano	10	3	1	6	15	23	10
19	Cosenza	10	1	2	7	8	22	5
20	Crotone	10	1	4	5	10	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casertana	Bari
Sorrento Calcio	0-0 D	2-1 W
Cavese	0-2 L	3-0 W
Team Altamura	1-0 W	3-0 W
Barletta	3-3 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bari (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casertana

DWDWWDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/10	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
03/10	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
27/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
15/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
06/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
29/08	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-3	9	5	D

Bari

WLWWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
10/10	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
04/10	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-2	6	5	L
26/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
19/09	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
15/09	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
11/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
05/09	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
28/08	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
21/08	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-0	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casertana vs Bari?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Casertana win (35%). Probabilities: Casertana 35%, draw 31%, Bari 34%.

How many goals are expected in Casertana vs Bari?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Casertana 1.1 · Bari 1.09), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Casertana vs Bari?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.