Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 31/10, 14:30

Prediction: Giugliano vs Casertana

Team pages: Giugliano · Casertana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Giugliano1.25

Casertana1.74

1X2

26% 27% 47%

Giugliano Draw Casertana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Giugliano 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLWL

Casertana 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLLWDD

Head-to-head

Giugliano 0–5–1 Casertana (6 last)

Casertana1-1Giugliano
Giugliano0-3Casertana
Giugliano1-1Casertana
Casertana1-1Giugliano
Casertana1-1Giugliano
Giugliano1-1Casertana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Giugliano 1436 · Casertana 1531

	Giugliano	Draw	Casertana
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	26%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Casertana (rating 1436 vs 1531).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Giugliano	Casertana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.6	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.7	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.30

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:12 +5’	3.50	3.30	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Giugliano 0–5–1 Casertana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	1-1 HT 1-1	Giugliano
19/12/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Giugliano	0-3 HT 0-2	Casertana
07/04/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Giugliano	1-1 HT 1-1	Casertana
23/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	1-1 HT 1-0	Giugliano
17/08/24 Italy Serie C Cup	Casertana	1-1 HT 0-1	Giugliano
21/04/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Giugliano	1-1 HT 0-1	Casertana

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	11	8	2	1	28	15	26
2	Bari	11	6	3	2	14	7	21
3	Sorrento Calcio	11	6	2	3	15	11	20
4	Catania	11	6	1	4	24	12	19
5	Monopoli	11	5	3	3	13	9	18
6	Audace Cerignola	11	5	2	4	18	11	17
7	Scafatese	10	4	5	1	16	13	17
8	Casertana	11	4	5	2	16	14	17
9	AZ Picerno ASD	11	5	0	6	20	18	15
9	Cavese	11	4	3	4	20	18	15
11	Inter Milan U23	10	4	2	4	19	18	14
12	Salernitana	11	3	5	3	14	15	14
13	Foggia	11	4	2	5	11	13	14
14	Casarano	11	4	2	5	13	18	14
15	Team Altamura	11	3	3	5	9	16	12
16	Barletta	11	2	5	4	13	16	11
17	AC Savoia 1908	11	2	5	4	12	17	11
18	Giugliano	11	3	1	7	15	29	10
19	Cosenza	11	1	3	7	9	23	6
20	Crotone	11	1	4	6	10	16	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Giugliano	Casertana
Catania	0-6 L	1-2 L
Inter Milan U23	0-4 L	3-2 W
Bari	0-2 L	1-1 D
Audace Cerignola	0-4 L	0-0 D
Sorrento Calcio	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Casertana (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Giugliano

LLLWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-3	0-6	5	2	L
19/10	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
13/10	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-4	4	4	L
10/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
03/10	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
19/09	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
15/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	5-2	1	7	W
11/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-4	4	6	L
05/09	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
28/08	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	3-4	1	4	L

Casertana

WDWWDLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
18/10	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/10	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
03/10	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
27/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
15/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
06/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
29/08	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Giugliano vs Casertana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Casertana win (47%). Probabilities: Giugliano 26%, draw 27%, Casertana 47%.

How many goals are expected in Giugliano vs Casertana?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Giugliano 1.25 · Casertana 1.74), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Giugliano vs Casertana?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.