Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 31/07, 20:00

Prediction: Club Mercedes vs Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Team pages: Club Mercedes · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.74Total

Club Mercedes0.95

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn0.79

1X2

37% 35% 28%

Club Mercedes Draw Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Club Mercedes 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWDWW

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLWWLW

Head-to-head

Club Mercedes 0–1–0 Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn (1 last)

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn0-0Club Mercedes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Mercedes 1552 · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1527

	Club Mercedes	Draw	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Our model	36%	36%	28%
Market	38%	33%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.74 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Mercedes	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.5	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.6	6.9 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.38

X2.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.88

Under 1.751.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:57 +17’	2.38	2.70	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Mercedes 0–1–0 Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	0-0 HT 0-0	Club Mercedes

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	20	10	5	5	25	15	35
2	Club Mercedes	21	8	8	5	22	11	32
3	Berazategui	20	8	8	4	23	15	32
4	CA Lugano	21	8	8	5	25	19	32
5	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	20	8	7	5	22	17	31
6	Centro Espanol	20	8	6	6	26	18	30
7	Puerto Nuevo	21	7	9	5	18	19	30
8	Victoriano Arenas	21	6	10	5	17	13	28
9	Club Leandro N. Alem	21	7	6	8	25	34	27
10	Juventud Unida San Miguel	20	6	7	7	21	20	25
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	21	5	7	9	16	24	22
12	JJ Urquiza	21	3	11	7	9	18	20
13	Argentino de Rosario	21	2	12	7	19	26	18
14	Deportivo Paraguayo	20	3	7	10	10	26	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Mercedes	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Berazategui	1-0 W	0-0 D
CA Lugano	0-1 L	3-2 W
Deportivo Paraguayo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Puerto Nuevo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Club Leandro N. Alem	2-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Mercedes

LWDDLWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/07	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
06/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	3	9	W
27/06	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	4-0	5-0	1	6	W
14/06	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
06/06	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
30/05	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
23/05	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
18/05	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	3	4	L

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

DDWDDLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
12/07	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
04/07	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
28/06	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
14/06	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
06/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	13	D
30/05	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	7	12	D
23/05	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	4	11	W
16/05	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
09/05	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Mercedes vs Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Mercedes win (37%). Probabilities: Club Mercedes 37%, draw 35%, Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 28%.

How many goals are expected in Club Mercedes vs Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn?

The model expects 1.74 goals (Club Mercedes 0.95 · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 0.79), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Mercedes vs Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.