Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 31/07, 23:00
Prediction: Defensores de Cambaceres vs CA Lugano
Team pages: Defensores de Cambaceres · CA Lugano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.03Total
Defensores de Cambaceres0.93
CA Lugano1.1
1X2
Defensores de Cambaceres
Draw
CA Lugano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Defensores de Cambaceres
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
CA Lugano
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensores de Cambaceres
3–3–0
CA Lugano
(6 last)
- CA Lugano1-2Defensores de Cambaceres
- CA Lugano2-2Defensores de Cambaceres
- Defensores de Cambaceres2-0CA Lugano
- CA Lugano1-1Defensores de Cambaceres
- Defensores de Cambaceres1-1CA Lugano
- Defensores de Cambaceres2-1CA Lugano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensores de Cambaceres 1444 · CA Lugano 1516
| Defensores de Cambaceres | Draw | CA Lugano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 33% | 38% |
| Market | 29% | 33% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.03 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Lugano (rating 1444 vs 1516).
- H2H favours Defensores de Cambaceres: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 13.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensores de Cambaceres | CA Lugano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.5 | 2.3 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.8 / 0.3 | 6.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores de Cambaceres 3–3–0 CA Lugano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Defensores de Cambaceres |
| 30/08/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Defensores de Cambaceres |
| 20/05/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Defensores de Cambaceres | 2-0 HT 0-0 | CA Lugano |
| 09/08/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Defensores de Cambaceres |
| 08/03/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Defensores de Cambaceres | 1-1 HT 1-0 | CA Lugano |
| 20/11/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | Defensores de Cambaceres | 2-1 HT 1-1 | CA Lugano |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacachispas | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 15 | 35 |
| 2 | Club Mercedes | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Berazategui | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 32 |
| 4 | CA Lugano | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 32 |
| 5 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 31 |
| 6 | Centro Espanol | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 18 | 30 |
| 7 | Puerto Nuevo | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 30 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 21 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 13 | 28 |
| 9 | Club Leandro N. Alem | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 34 | 27 |
| 10 | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 25 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 22 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 20 |
| 13 | Argentino de Rosario | 21 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 18 |
| 14 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 16 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensores de Cambaceres | CA Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Juventud Unida San Miguel | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Sacachispas | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Argentino de Rosario | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 0-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Centro Espanol | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| JJ Urquiza | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Sportivo Barracas | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensores de Cambaceres
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 17/07 | General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 11/07 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 04/07 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 28/06 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 15/06 | Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 31/05 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 10 | L |
CA Lugano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/07 | Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 27/06 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensores de Cambaceres vs CA Lugano?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CA Lugano win (38%). Probabilities: Defensores de Cambaceres 29%, draw 33%, CA Lugano 38%.
How many goals are expected in Defensores de Cambaceres vs CA Lugano?
The model expects 2.03 goals (Defensores de Cambaceres 0.93 · CA Lugano 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensores de Cambaceres vs CA Lugano?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.