Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 04/08, 20:00

Prediction: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Lujan

Team pages: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn · Lujan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn1

Lujan0.98

1X2

34% 33% 32%

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Draw Lujan

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWWLWD

Lujan 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1–2–0 Lujan (3 last)

Lujan0-1Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Lujan0-0Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn0-0Lujan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1540 · Lujan 1571

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Draw	Lujan
Our model	34%	34%	32%
Market	34%	33%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Lujan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.2 / 0.7	5.4 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.63

X2.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.95

Under 1.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +7’	2.63	2.70	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1–2–0 Lujan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Lujan	0-1 HT 0-0	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
19/07/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Lujan	0-0 HT 0-0	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
06/04/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	0-0 HT 0-0	Lujan

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	21	11	6	4	28	16	39
2	Canuelas FC	21	9	9	3	23	13	36
3	Deportivo Espanol	22	7	11	4	18	14	32
4	Leones de Rosario	21	7	9	5	19	19	30
5	Yupanqui	21	7	8	6	25	22	29
6	General Lamadrid	22	7	8	7	19	23	29
7	Sportivo Barracas	21	8	4	9	25	23	28
8	Central Cordoba de Rosario	21	6	8	7	17	16	26
9	CA Atlas	21	6	8	7	17	19	26
10	El Porvenir	21	4	13	4	17	18	25
11	Central Ballester	20	6	4	10	19	24	22
12	Deportivo Muniz	22	4	10	8	16	21	22
13	CA Claypole	21	5	7	9	16	26	22
14	Fenix	21	5	6	10	14	22	21

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Lujan
Deportivo Paraguayo	1-0 W	2-0 W
Yupanqui	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lujan (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

DWDDLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
25/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
12/07	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
04/07	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
28/06	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
14/06	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
06/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	13	D
30/05	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	7	12	D
23/05	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	4	11	W
16/05	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	8	D

Lujan

WWWWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	4	6	W
26/07	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
11/07	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/07	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
29/06	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
14/06	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
07/06	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
30/05	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
24/05	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-2	3-2	3	9	W
17/05	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	2	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Lujan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn win (34%). Probabilities: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 34%, draw 33%, Lujan 32%.

How many goals are expected in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Lujan?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1 · Lujan 0.98), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Lujan?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.