Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 06/09, 21:00
Prediction: Cittadella vs Lumezzane
Team pages: Cittadella · Lumezzane
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.97Total
Cittadella1.3
Lumezzane0.66
1X2
Cittadella
Draw
Lumezzane
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Cittadella
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Lumezzane
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cittadella
3–1–1
Lumezzane
(5 last)
- Cittadella1-0Lumezzane
- Lumezzane1-2Cittadella
- Cittadella0-1Lumezzane
- Cittadella1-0Lumezzane
- Lumezzane1-1Cittadella
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cittadella 1540 · Lumezzane 1537
| Cittadella | Draw | Lumezzane | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cittadella: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cittadella | Lumezzane | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.8 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cittadella 3–1–1 Lumezzane
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 Italy Serie C Play-Offs | Cittadella | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lumezzane |
| 07/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A | Lumezzane | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Cittadella |
| 25/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Cittadella | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Lumezzane |
| 20/03/16 Italy Serie C Group A | Cittadella | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lumezzane |
| 07/11/15 Italy Serie C Group A | Lumezzane | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cittadella |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Brescia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Cittadella | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Alcione Milano | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Juventus U23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Albinoleffe | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Trento | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Treviso | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Lumezzane | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Desenzano | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | US Folgore Caratese | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 14 | Novara | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Lecco | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | AC Carpi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | Giana Erminio | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Renate | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 | US Pergolettese | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cittadella | Lumezzane |
|---|---|---|
| Renate | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Giana Erminio | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Novara | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Union Brescia | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Lecco | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Pro Vercelli | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 3 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cittadella
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/04 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 07/03 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Lumezzane
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A |
4-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 03/04 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 21/03 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/03 | Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/03 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cittadella vs Lumezzane?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cittadella win (52%). Probabilities: Cittadella 52%, draw 29%, Lumezzane 19%.
How many goals are expected in Cittadella vs Lumezzane?
The model expects 1.97 goals (Cittadella 1.3 · Lumezzane 0.66), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Lumezzane?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.