Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 06/09, 21:00

Prediction: A.C. Ospitaletto vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Team pages: A.C. Ospitaletto · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

A.C. Ospitaletto1.25

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1.09

1X2

39% 30% 31%

A.C. Ospitaletto Draw ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

A.C. Ospitaletto 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWLLWD

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

A.C. Ospitaletto 2–0 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (2 last)

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-2A.C. Ospitaletto
A.C. Ospitaletto2-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · A.C. Ospitaletto 1532 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1585

	A.C. Ospitaletto	Draw	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Our model	39%	31%	31%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (rating 1532 vs 1585).
H2H favours A.C. Ospitaletto: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	A.C. Ospitaletto	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.73

2 (0)2.08

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:36 +1’	2.30	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · A.C. Ospitaletto 2–0–0 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-2 HT 1-0	A.C. Ospitaletto
12/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A	A.C. Ospitaletto	2-1 HT 1-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Brescia	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Cittadella	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	A.C. Ospitaletto	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
3	Alcione Milano	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Juventus U23	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Albinoleffe	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Trento	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
10	Treviso	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Lumezzane	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
12	Desenzano	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	US Folgore Caratese	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
14	Novara	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Pro Vercelli	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Lecco	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
17	AC Carpi	2	0	1	1	4	6	1
18	Giana Erminio	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
19	Renate	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
20	US Pergolettese	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	A.C. Ospitaletto	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Pro Vercelli	0-1 L	1-0 W
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	1-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

A.C. Ospitaletto

LWDWDWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
22/08	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
19/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/04	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
06/04	Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
28/03	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	3-2	2	1	W
21/03	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	0	1	D
14/03	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	3-2	0	5	W
07/03	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-4	4	5	L

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

LWWWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/08	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
19/04	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-2	3	3	W
12/04	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
03/04	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/03	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/03	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
14/03	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
07/03	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in A.C. Ospitaletto vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a A.C. Ospitaletto win (39%). Probabilities: A.C. Ospitaletto 39%, draw 30%, ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 31%.

How many goals are expected in A.C. Ospitaletto vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model expects 2.34 goals (A.C. Ospitaletto 1.25 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1.09), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in A.C. Ospitaletto vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.