Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 07/09, 21:00
Prediction: Renate vs Novara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Renate1.35
Novara1.14
1X2
Renate
Draw
Novara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Renate
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Novara
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Renate
2–2–2
Novara
(6 last)
- Renate3-1Novara
- Novara0-1Renate
- Novara1-0Renate
- Renate0-1Novara
- Renate2-2Novara
- Novara1-1Renate
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Renate 1493 · Novara 1487
| Renate | Draw | Novara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Renate | Novara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 5.8 | 2.9 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Renate 2–2–2 Novara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A | Renate | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Novara |
| 23/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Renate |
| 23/02/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Renate |
| 11/10/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Renate | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Novara |
| 10/08/24 Italy Serie C Cup | Renate | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Novara |
| 06/03/24 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Renate |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Brescia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Cittadella | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Alcione Milano | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Juventus U23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Albinoleffe | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Trento | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Treviso | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Lumezzane | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Desenzano | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | US Folgore Caratese | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 14 | Novara | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Lecco | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | AC Carpi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | Giana Erminio | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Renate | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 | US Pergolettese | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Renate | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| Cittadella | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Alcione Milano | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Vicenza | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Lumezzane | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Renate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 21/08 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Trento Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 13/04 | Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/04 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 28/03 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Virtus Verona Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 07/03 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
Novara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 07/03 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Renate vs Novara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Renate win (40%). Probabilities: Renate 40%, draw 30%, Novara 30%.
How many goals are expected in Renate vs Novara?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Renate 1.35 · Novara 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Renate vs Novara?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.