Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 09/10, 20:30

Prediction: Union Brescia vs Pro Vercelli

Team pages: Union Brescia · Pro Vercelli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Union Brescia1.93

Pro Vercelli0.59

1X2

69% 21% 10%

Union Brescia Draw Pro Vercelli

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Brescia 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDWDD

Pro Vercelli 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLDLDW

Head-to-head

Union Brescia 1–1–0 Pro Vercelli (2 last)

Pro Vercelli0-0Union Brescia
Union Brescia5-0Pro Vercelli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Brescia 1573 · Pro Vercelli 1485

	Union Brescia	Draw	Pro Vercelli
Our model	69%	22%	9%
Market	70%	20%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Brescia (rating 1573 vs 1485).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Brescia	Pro Vercelli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +6’	1.28	4.50	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Brescia 1–1–0 Pro Vercelli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Pro Vercelli	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Brescia
06/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Union Brescia	5-0 HT 2-0	Pro Vercelli

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	8	7	0	1	14	4	21
2	Union Brescia	8	4	4	0	14	6	16
3	A.C. Ospitaletto	8	4	3	1	14	6	15
4	Trento	8	3	5	0	11	5	14
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	8	4	2	2	12	9	14
6	Treviso	8	3	4	1	8	6	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	3	3	2	12	10	12
8	Alcione Milano	8	2	5	1	12	13	11
9	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	2	4	2	7	7	10
10	Desenzano	8	2	4	2	6	7	10
11	Novara	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	Lecco	8	2	3	3	6	8	9
13	Pro Vercelli	8	2	3	3	8	11	9
14	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
15	US Pergolettese	8	1	5	2	3	5	8
16	US Folgore Caratese	8	1	3	4	9	12	6
17	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	7	13	6
18	AC Carpi	8	1	3	4	10	17	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	0	4	4	6	10	4
20	Renate	8	0	3	5	6	12	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Brescia	Pro Vercelli
Alcione Milano	4-0 W	2-2 D
Treviso	2-2 D	1-2 L
Trento	0-0 D	0-4 L
Desenzano	1-0 W	1-1 D
AC Carpi	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Brescia (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Brescia

WWWWWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	12	2	D
20/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-0	8	2	W
17/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
13/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/08	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
25/04	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/04	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	11	3	W

Pro Vercelli

WLDLWLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
26/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
21/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
17/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
13/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
07/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
30/08	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
23/08	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
25/04	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-3	6	4	L
19/04	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Brescia vs Pro Vercelli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Brescia win (69%). Probabilities: Union Brescia 69%, draw 21%, Pro Vercelli 10%.

How many goals are expected in Union Brescia vs Pro Vercelli?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Union Brescia 1.93 · Pro Vercelli 0.59), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Brescia vs Pro Vercelli?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.