Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 11/10, 14:30

Prediction: Renate vs Giana Erminio

Team pages: Renate · Giana Erminio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Renate1.48

Giana Erminio1.05

1X2

46% 29% 26%

Renate Draw Giana Erminio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Renate 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDDLLD

Giana Erminio 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDDDD

Head-to-head

Renate 2–1–3 Giana Erminio (6 last)

Giana Erminio0-1Renate
Renate1-1Giana Erminio
Renate1-2Giana Erminio
Giana Erminio2-1Renate
Renate1-0Giana Erminio
Renate0-2Giana Erminio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Renate 1452 · Giana Erminio 1443

	Renate	Draw	Giana Erminio
Our model	46%	29%	26%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Giana Erminio: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Renate	Giana Erminio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +3’	1.95	3.10	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Renate 2–1–3 Giana Erminio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Giana Erminio	0-1 HT 0-1	Renate
30/08/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	1-1 HT 0-0	Giana Erminio
07/05/25 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Renate	1-2 HT 1-1	Giana Erminio
18/01/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Giana Erminio	2-1 HT 0-0	Renate
13/09/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	1-0 HT 1-0	Giana Erminio
20/04/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	0-2 HT 0-0	Giana Erminio

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	8	7	0	1	14	4	21
2	Union Brescia	8	4	4	0	14	6	16
3	A.C. Ospitaletto	8	4	3	1	14	6	15
4	Trento	8	3	5	0	11	5	14
5	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	8	4	2	2	12	9	14
6	Treviso	8	3	4	1	8	6	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	3	3	2	12	10	12
8	Alcione Milano	8	2	5	1	12	13	11
9	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	2	4	2	7	7	10
10	Desenzano	8	2	4	2	6	7	10
11	Novara	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	Lecco	8	2	3	3	6	8	9
13	Pro Vercelli	8	2	3	3	8	11	9
14	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
15	US Pergolettese	8	1	5	2	3	5	8
16	US Folgore Caratese	8	1	3	4	9	12	6
17	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	7	13	6
18	AC Carpi	8	1	3	4	10	17	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	0	4	4	6	10	4
20	Renate	8	0	3	5	6	12	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Renate	Giana Erminio
Treviso	0-1 L	0-0 D
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	0-0 D	1-2 L
Lumezzane	2-2 D	0-1 L
Cittadella	0-1 L	2-0 W
Trento	3-3 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Renate

DWLLLDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
27/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
20/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
17/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
13/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
07/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
31/08	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
21/08	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-3	8	6	L
25/04	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
19/04	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	3-3	4	7	D

Giana Erminio

WWLLLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
26/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
20/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
17/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
06/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
30/08	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
22/08	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
25/04	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/04	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Renate vs Giana Erminio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Renate win (46%). Probabilities: Renate 46%, draw 29%, Giana Erminio 26%.

How many goals are expected in Renate vs Giana Erminio?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Renate 1.48 · Giana Erminio 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Renate vs Giana Erminio?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.