Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 10/10, 17:30
Prediction: Novara vs Cittadella
Team pages: Novara · Cittadella
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Novara1.02
Cittadella1.24
1X2
Novara
Draw
Cittadella
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Novara
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Cittadella
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Novara
2–2–2
Cittadella
(6 last)
- Novara0-1Cittadella
- Cittadella2-2Novara
- Cittadella3-1Novara
- Cittadella1-3Novara
- Novara1-0Cittadella
- Novara1-1Cittadella
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Novara 1503 · Cittadella 1572
| Novara | Draw | Cittadella | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 31% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cittadella (rating 1503 vs 1572).
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Novara | Cittadella | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.9 | 2.7 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Novara 2–2–2 Cittadella
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Italy Serie C Group A | Novara | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Cittadella |
| 14/12/25 Italy Serie C Group A | Cittadella | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Novara |
| 30/09/20 Coppa Italia | Cittadella | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Novara |
| 11/02/18 Italy Serie B | Cittadella | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Novara |
| 16/09/17 Italy Serie B | Novara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cittadella |
| 11/02/17 Italy Serie B | Novara | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cittadella |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | A.C. Ospitaletto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Trento | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Treviso | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Albinoleffe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | Alcione Milano | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| 9 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Desenzano | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 11 | Novara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| 13 | Pro Vercelli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 15 | US Pergolettese | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | US Folgore Caratese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 6 |
| 17 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 6 |
| 18 | AC Carpi | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 20 | Renate | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Novara | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| A.C. Ospitaletto | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| AC Carpi | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Lumezzane | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| US Pergolettese | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Renate | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Juventus U23 | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Cittadella (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Novara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
Cittadella
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Lecco Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/09 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Renate Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Novara vs Cittadella?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cittadella win (40%). Probabilities: Novara 29%, draw 30%, Cittadella 40%.
How many goals are expected in Novara vs Cittadella?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Novara 1.02 · Cittadella 1.24), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Novara vs Cittadella?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.