Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 06/11, 20:30

Prediction: Alcione Milano vs Lumezzane

Team pages: Alcione Milano · Lumezzane

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Alcione Milano1.45

Lumezzane1.2

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Alcione Milano Draw Lumezzane

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alcione Milano 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLDDDWLW

Lumezzane 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLWDLLD

Head-to-head

Alcione Milano 3–2–1 Lumezzane (6 last)

Lumezzane0-0Alcione Milano
Lumezzane1-0Alcione Milano
Alcione Milano1-0Lumezzane
Lumezzane1-1Alcione Milano
Alcione Milano1-0Lumezzane
Alcione Milano1-0Lumezzane

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alcione Milano 1508 · Lumezzane 1479

	Alcione Milano	Draw	Lumezzane
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alcione Milano: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alcione Milano	Lumezzane
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:52 +18’	2.10	3.20	3.00
14:57 +15’	2.10	3.30▲	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alcione Milano 3–2–1 Lumezzane

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Lumezzane	0-0 HT 0-0	Alcione Milano
17/01/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	1-0 HT 1-0	Alcione Milano
06/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Alcione Milano	1-0 HT 1-0	Lumezzane
09/03/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	1-1 HT 0-1	Alcione Milano
26/10/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Alcione Milano	1-0 HT 1-0	Lumezzane
05/02/23 Italy Serie D	Alcione Milano	1-0 HT 0-0	Lumezzane

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	12	10	0	2	19	6	30
2	Union Brescia	12	7	4	1	23	9	25
3	Trento	12	6	6	0	17	6	24
4	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	12	6	3	3	17	12	21
5	A.C. Ospitaletto	12	5	4	3	18	11	19
6	Treviso	12	5	4	3	12	9	19
7	Alcione Milano	12	4	6	2	21	18	18
8	Lecco	12	4	5	3	18	11	17
9	Albinoleffe	12	4	5	3	19	17	17
10	US Pergolettese	12	4	5	3	12	12	17
11	Lumezzane	12	3	4	5	13	17	13
12	Desenzano	12	3	4	5	10	14	13
13	Novara	12	3	4	5	11	16	13
14	Pro Vercelli	12	3	4	5	11	20	13
15	AC Carpi	12	3	3	6	16	26	12
16	Giana Erminio	12	2	5	5	13	17	11
17	Juventus U23	12	2	5	5	12	19	11
18	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	12	2	4	6	8	18	10
19	Renate	12	1	5	6	14	16	8
20	US Folgore Caratese	12	1	4	7	11	21	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alcione Milano	Lumezzane
AC Carpi	1-2 L	1-3 L
Albinoleffe	1-1 D	3-2 W
US Folgore Caratese	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alcione Milano (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alcione Milano

DWDLDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	3-1	3-1	4	1	W
24/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
18/10	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-1	2	4	W
11/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
04/10	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
27/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
17/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
13/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-2	4	4	W
07/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	4	6	D

Lumezzane

LDDWLWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
25/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
17/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-3	5	1	L
13/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
10/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
26/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-2	2	6	L
21/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
17/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
13/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alcione Milano vs Lumezzane?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alcione Milano win (42%). Probabilities: Alcione Milano 42%, draw 28%, Lumezzane 30%.

How many goals are expected in Alcione Milano vs Lumezzane?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Alcione Milano 1.45 · Lumezzane 1.2), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alcione Milano vs Lumezzane?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.