Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 15/11, 17:30

Prediction: Cittadella vs US Folgore Caratese

Team pages: Cittadella · US Folgore Caratese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Cittadella1.7

US Folgore Caratese0.63

1X2

63% 24% 13%

Cittadella Draw US Folgore Caratese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Cittadella 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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US Folgore Caratese 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cittadella 1572 · US Folgore Caratese 1441

	Cittadella	Draw	US Folgore Caratese
Our model	62%	25%	12%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cittadella (rating 1572 vs 1441).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cittadella	US Folgore Caratese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	1.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:55 +17’	1.40	4.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cittadella	US Folgore Caratese
Giana Erminio	0-0 D	1-1 D
Treviso	1-0 W	0-2 L
Union Brescia	1-2 L	0-4 L
Lecco	3-0 W	2-2 D
AC Carpi	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cittadella (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cittadella

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/11	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/10	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
19/10	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
10/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-2	11	4	L
26/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
13/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	3	W

US Folgore Caratese

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/11	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-4	4	4	L
25/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
17/10	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
11/10	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
03/10	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
26/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
20/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
17/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
13/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cittadella vs US Folgore Caratese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cittadella win (63%). Probabilities: Cittadella 63%, draw 24%, US Folgore Caratese 13%.

How many goals are expected in Cittadella vs US Folgore Caratese?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Cittadella 1.7 · US Folgore Caratese 0.63), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cittadella vs US Folgore Caratese?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.