Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 15/11, 12:30

Prediction: Novara vs Lecco

Team pages: Novara · Lecco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Novara1.13

Lecco1.31

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Novara Draw Lecco

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Novara 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLDLWL

Lecco 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLDDWDWW

Head-to-head

Novara 1–3–2 Lecco (6 last)

Lecco0-0Novara
Novara1-0Lecco
Lecco1-1Novara
Novara0-0Lecco
Lecco3-1Novara
Novara1-2Lecco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Novara 1464 · Lecco 1552

	Novara	Draw	Lecco
Our model	31%	30%	40%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lecco (rating 1464 vs 1552).
H2H favours Lecco: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Novara	Lecco
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +5’	2.90	3.10	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Novara 1–3–2 Lecco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	0-0 HT 0-0	Novara
09/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Novara	1-0 HT 0-0	Lecco
17/01/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	1-1 HT 1-1	Novara
16/09/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Novara	0-0 HT 0-0	Lecco
11/02/23 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	3-1 HT 2-0	Novara
16/10/22 Italy Serie C Group A	Novara	1-2 HT 0-2	Lecco

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Novara	Lecco
Desenzano	1-0 W	3-1 W
Cittadella	0-2 L	0-3 L
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	2-1 W	4-0 W
US Pergolettese	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lecco (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Novara

LDDLWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
02/11	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
25/10	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
18/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
10/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
04/10	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
26/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
20/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
17/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
13/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	3	5	L

Lecco

WWDLDDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
01/11	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
25/10	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	1	D
16/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	5-0	5	5	W
11/10	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
04/10	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
26/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-3	4	4	L
20/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
17/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
13/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Novara vs Lecco?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lecco win (40%). Probabilities: Novara 31%, draw 29%, Lecco 40%.

How many goals are expected in Novara vs Lecco?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Novara 1.13 · Lecco 1.31), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Novara vs Lecco?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.