Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 14/11, 17:30

Prediction: AC Carpi vs Giana Erminio

Team pages: AC Carpi · Giana Erminio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

AC Carpi1.44

Giana Erminio1.34

1X2

38% 28% 34%

AC Carpi Draw Giana Erminio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Carpi 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLWWLD

Giana Erminio 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDDDWWLD

Head-to-head

AC Carpi 1–1 Giana Erminio (2 last)

Giana Erminio2-0AC Carpi
AC Carpi2-0Giana Erminio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Carpi 1458 · Giana Erminio 1501

	AC Carpi	Draw	Giana Erminio
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Giana Erminio (rating 1458 vs 1501).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Carpi	Giana Erminio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.4	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +5’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Carpi 1–0–1 Giana Erminio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/23 Italy Serie D	Giana Erminio	2-0 HT 2-0	AC Carpi
30/10/22 Italy Serie D	AC Carpi	2-0 HT 0-0	Giana Erminio

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Carpi	Giana Erminio
US Folgore Caratese	0-0 D	1-1 D
Renate	0-5 L	2-2 D
Alcione Milano	2-1 W	1-3 L
Pro Vercelli	0-2 L	1-1 D
Cittadella	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Giana Erminio (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Carpi

LDDLLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
01/11	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-3	0-5	2	6	L
24/10	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
17/10	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	3-1	5	1	W
10/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
03/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
27/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-3	6	6	L
20/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
17/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-2	0	7	D
13/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	2	3	L

Giana Erminio

LDDDDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
31/10	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-3	1-3	7	1	L
25/10	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
19/10	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
04/10	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
26/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
20/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
17/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Carpi vs Giana Erminio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Carpi win (38%). Probabilities: AC Carpi 38%, draw 28%, Giana Erminio 34%.

How many goals are expected in AC Carpi vs Giana Erminio?

The model expects 2.78 goals (AC Carpi 1.44 · Giana Erminio 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Carpi vs Giana Erminio?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.