Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 15/11, 17:30

Prediction: US Pergolettese vs Pro Vercelli

Team pages: US Pergolettese · Pro Vercelli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

US Pergolettese1.51

Pro Vercelli1.31

1X2

40% 28% 32%

US Pergolettese Draw Pro Vercelli

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

US Pergolettese 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDDWWWLL

Pro Vercelli 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLLWDW

Head-to-head

US Pergolettese 3–1–2 Pro Vercelli (6 last)

Pro Vercelli1-1US Pergolettese
US Pergolettese2-1Pro Vercelli
Pro Vercelli2-0US Pergolettese
US Pergolettese1-0Pro Vercelli
Pro Vercelli1-0US Pergolettese
US Pergolettese3-0Pro Vercelli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Pergolettese 1527 · Pro Vercelli 1473

	US Pergolettese	Draw	Pro Vercelli
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	40%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Pergolettese (rating 1527 vs 1473).
H2H favours US Pergolettese: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Pergolettese	Pro Vercelli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.1	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:11	2.25	3.20	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · US Pergolettese 3–1–2 Pro Vercelli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 Italy Serie C Cup	Pro Vercelli	1-1 HT 0-1	US Pergolettese
03/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A	US Pergolettese	2-1 HT 0-0	Pro Vercelli
26/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Pro Vercelli	2-0 HT 1-0	US Pergolettese
22/12/24 Italy Serie C Group A	US Pergolettese	1-0 HT 0-0	Pro Vercelli
26/08/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Pro Vercelli	1-0 HT 0-0	US Pergolettese
24/02/24 Italy Serie C Group A	US Pergolettese	3-0 HT 0-0	Pro Vercelli

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Pergolettese	Pro Vercelli
A.C. Ospitaletto	3-2 W	2-1 W
AC Carpi	2-1 W	2-0 W
Trento	0-0 D	0-4 L
Lecco	0-0 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: US Pergolettese (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

US Pergolettese

WDDDDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	2-3	2	2	L
30/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-3	6	2	L
25/10	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	3-2	4	3	W
10/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
03/10	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	2-2	10	4	D
26/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
20/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
17/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
13/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Pro Vercelli

LDLDWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	3-1	4-2	3	1	W
02/11	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
25/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
16/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
09/10	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
03/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
26/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
21/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
17/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
13/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Pergolettese vs Pro Vercelli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a US Pergolettese win (40%). Probabilities: US Pergolettese 40%, draw 28%, Pro Vercelli 32%.

How many goals are expected in US Pergolettese vs Pro Vercelli?

The model expects 2.82 goals (US Pergolettese 1.51 · Pro Vercelli 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in US Pergolettese vs Pro Vercelli?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.