Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 14/11, 17:30

Prediction: Lumezzane vs Trento

Team pages: Lumezzane · Trento

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Lumezzane0.95

Trento1.46

1X2

24% 28% 49%

Lumezzane Draw Trento

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lumezzane 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWDLLDW

Trento 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DDWDDWWWDW

Head-to-head

Lumezzane 0–4–2 Trento (6 last)

Trento1-1Lumezzane
Lumezzane1-1Trento
Trento2-2Lumezzane
Lumezzane0-2Trento
Lumezzane0-2Trento
Trento0-0Lumezzane

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lumezzane 1502 · Trento 1560

	Lumezzane	Draw	Trento
Our model	23%	29%	48%
Market	24%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trento (rating 1502 vs 1560).
H2H favours Trento: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lumezzane	Trento
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +24’	3.70	3.40	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lumezzane 0–4–2 Trento

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Trento	1-1 HT 0-1	Lumezzane
19/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	1-1 HT 0-1	Trento
16/02/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Trento	2-2 HT 1-2	Lumezzane
05/10/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	0-2 HT 0-1	Trento
13/02/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Lumezzane	0-2 HT 0-0	Trento
07/10/23 Italy Serie C Group A	Trento	0-0 HT 0-0	Lumezzane

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lumezzane	Trento
Alcione Milano	1-0 W	2-2 D
US Pergolettese	1-2 L	0-0 D
Juventus U23	0-0 D	2-1 W
Albinoleffe	3-2 W	2-1 W
US Folgore Caratese	1-2 L	1-0 W
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Trento (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lumezzane

DDWLWDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
01/11	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
25/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
17/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-3	5	1	L
13/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
10/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
26/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	1-2	2	6	L
21/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
17/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
13/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	2	7	D

Trento

DDWDDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
31/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
25/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
19/10	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
11/10	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
04/10	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
26/09	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
21/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
17/09	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-2	5	6	D
13/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lumezzane vs Trento?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Trento win (49%). Probabilities: Lumezzane 24%, draw 28%, Trento 49%.

How many goals are expected in Lumezzane vs Trento?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Lumezzane 0.95 · Trento 1.46), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lumezzane vs Trento?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.