Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 07/11, 17:30

Prediction: US Pergolettese vs Renate

Team pages: US Pergolettese · Renate

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

US Pergolettese1.13

Renate1.29

1X2

32% 29% 39%

US Pergolettese Draw Renate

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

US Pergolettese 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDDDWWWL

Renate 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDDLDW

Head-to-head

US Pergolettese 1–1–4 Renate (6 last)

Renate2-1US Pergolettese
US Pergolettese0-1Renate
US Pergolettese1-1Renate
Renate2-1US Pergolettese
US Pergolettese0-1Renate
Renate1-5US Pergolettese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Pergolettese 1530 · Renate 1482

	US Pergolettese	Draw	Renate
Our model	31%	30%	39%
Market	32%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Pergolettese (rating 1530 vs 1482).
H2H favours Renate: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Pergolettese	Renate
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.5	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.20

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +1’	2.80	3.20	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · US Pergolettese 1–1–4 Renate

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	2-1 HT 1-0	US Pergolettese
24/08/25 Italy Serie C Group A	US Pergolettese	0-1 HT 0-1	Renate
16/08/25 Italy Serie C Cup	US Pergolettese	1-1 HT 0-0	Renate
18/04/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	2-1 HT 1-1	US Pergolettese
07/12/24 Italy Serie C Group A	US Pergolettese	0-1 HT 0-0	Renate
20/01/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Renate	1-5 HT 1-2	US Pergolettese

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	12	10	0	2	19	6	30
2	Union Brescia	12	7	4	1	23	9	25
3	Trento	12	6	6	0	17	6	24
4	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	12	6	3	3	17	12	21
5	A.C. Ospitaletto	12	5	4	3	18	11	19
6	Treviso	12	5	4	3	12	9	19
7	Alcione Milano	12	4	6	2	21	18	18
8	Lecco	12	4	5	3	18	11	17
9	Albinoleffe	12	4	5	3	19	17	17
10	US Pergolettese	12	4	5	3	12	12	17
11	Lumezzane	12	3	4	5	13	17	13
12	Desenzano	12	3	4	5	10	14	13
13	Novara	12	3	4	5	11	16	13
14	Pro Vercelli	12	3	4	5	11	20	13
15	AC Carpi	12	3	3	6	16	26	12
16	Giana Erminio	12	2	5	5	13	17	11
17	Juventus U23	12	2	5	5	12	19	11
18	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	12	2	4	6	8	18	10
19	Renate	12	1	5	6	14	16	8
20	US Folgore Caratese	12	1	4	7	11	21	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Pergolettese	Renate
Albinoleffe	2-3 L	0-0 D
Lumezzane	2-1 W	2-2 D
A.C. Ospitaletto	3-2 W	1-1 D
AC Carpi	2-1 W	5-0 W
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	2-2 D	1-2 L
Novara	1-0 W	1-2 L
Juventus U23	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: US Pergolettese (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

US Pergolettese

DWDDDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-3	6	2	L
25/10	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	3-2	4	3	W
10/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
03/10	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	2-2	10	4	D
26/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
20/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
17/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
13/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Renate

LDDLLDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	5-0	3	6	W
25/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
19/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	5	9	L
11/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
03/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
27/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
20/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
17/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
13/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
07/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Pergolettese vs Renate?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Renate win (39%). Probabilities: US Pergolettese 32%, draw 29%, Renate 39%.

How many goals are expected in US Pergolettese vs Renate?

The model expects 2.42 goals (US Pergolettese 1.13 · Renate 1.29), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in US Pergolettese vs Renate?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.