Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 06/11, 20:30

Prediction: Union Brescia vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Team pages: Union Brescia · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Union Brescia1.89

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0.88

1X2

60% 24% 16%

Union Brescia Draw ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Brescia 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDWLWW

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDWLWD

Head-to-head

Union Brescia 1–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (2 last)

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-2Union Brescia
Union Brescia1-2ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Brescia 1553 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1517

	Union Brescia	Draw	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Our model	60%	24%	16%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Brescia	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.70

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:54 +16’	1.50	3.70	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Brescia 1–0–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-2 HT 0-0	Union Brescia
23/08/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Union Brescia	1-2 HT 1-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	12	10	0	2	19	6	30
2	Union Brescia	12	7	4	1	23	9	25
3	Trento	12	6	6	0	17	6	24
4	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	12	6	3	3	17	12	21
5	A.C. Ospitaletto	12	5	4	3	18	11	19
6	Treviso	12	5	4	3	12	9	19
7	Alcione Milano	12	4	6	2	21	18	18
8	Lecco	12	4	5	3	18	11	17
9	Albinoleffe	12	4	5	3	19	17	17
10	US Pergolettese	12	4	5	3	12	12	17
11	Lumezzane	12	3	4	5	13	17	13
12	Desenzano	12	3	4	5	10	14	13
13	Novara	12	3	4	5	11	16	13
14	Pro Vercelli	12	3	4	5	11	20	13
15	AC Carpi	12	3	3	6	16	26	12
16	Giana Erminio	12	2	5	5	13	17	11
17	Juventus U23	12	2	5	5	12	19	11
18	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	12	2	4	6	8	18	10
19	Renate	12	1	5	6	14	16	8
20	US Folgore Caratese	12	1	4	7	11	21	7

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Brescia	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Cittadella	2-1 W	0-1 L
Desenzano	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Brescia (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Brescia

WDDWDDWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
24/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
19/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
09/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	12	2	D
20/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-0	8	2	W
17/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
13/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	3	W

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

LLWWWDWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
25/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
19/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
10/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
03/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
27/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	3-0	2	6	W
20/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
13/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
06/09	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Brescia vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Brescia win (60%). Probabilities: Union Brescia 60%, draw 24%, ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 16%.

How many goals are expected in Union Brescia vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Union Brescia 1.89 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 0.88), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Brescia vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.