Prediction: Southern District vs Kitchee

Team pages: Southern District · Kitchee

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.77Total
Southern District1.36
Kitchee2.4
1X2
20% 21% 60%
Southern District Draw Kitchee
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Southern District 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
WLDLLWWDWW
Kitchee 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
WWWLDLDWDW
Head-to-head
Southern District 0–2–4 Kitchee (6 last)
  • Kitchee3-0Southern District
  • Southern District2-4Kitchee
  • Southern District1-3Kitchee
  • Southern District1-1Kitchee
  • Kitchee1-1Southern District
  • Southern District0-3Kitchee
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southern District 1508 · Kitchee 1546
Southern DistrictDrawKitchee
Our model20%20%60%
Market20%21%60%
Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Kitchee: 4-2-0.
  • High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Southern DistrictKitchee
Goals for / against (FT)2 / 1.62.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.9 / 0.71.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)50/10/40%50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)3 / 6.33 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.9 / 0.64.9 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Southern District 024 Kitchee

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DateHomeScoreAway
31/01/26
Hong Kong Premier League
Kitchee3-0
HT 1-0
Southern District
26/11/25
Hong Kong Premier League
Southern District2-4
HT 1-4
Kitchee
29/03/25
Hong Kong Premier League
Southern District1-3
HT 0-0
Kitchee
11/01/25
Hong Kong Premier League
Southern District1-1
HT 1-0
Kitchee
14/09/24
Hong Kong Premier League
Kitchee1-1
HT 0-1
Southern District
18/05/24
Hong Kong Premier League
Southern District0-3
HT 0-1
Kitchee

Standings · Hong Kong Premier League

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Lee Man FC 3300 909
2 North District 3210 707
3 Kitchee 3210 737
4 Tai Po 3201 756
5 Southern District 2200 536
6 Shatin 3102 393
7 Eastern District 2101 453
8 Eastern SC 3102 673
9 HK Rangers FC 3003 590
10 Hong Kong FC 2002 260
11 Kowloon City 3003 190

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentSouthern DistrictKitchee
Kowloon City 2-1 W 4-0 W
Eastern District 2-2 D 4-1 W
HK Rangers FC 1-3 L 3-2 W
North District 2-2 D 0-0 D
Tai Po 0-1 L 0-3 L
Record vs common 1 W 2 D 2 L 3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kitchee (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southern District

WLDLLWWDWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
29/08 Kowloon City
Hong Kong Premier League
1-0 2-1 410 W
22/08 Hong Kong FC
Hong Kong Premier League
2-0 3-2 44 W
09/05 Eastern District
Hong Kong Premier League
0-2 2-2 155 D
03/05 Hong Kong FC
Hong Kong Premier League
2-0 4-1 45 W
26/04 Kowloon City
Hong Kong Premier League
1-0 3-1 77 W
19/04 HK Rangers FC
Hong Kong Premier League
0-1 1-3 83 L
12/04 Kowloon City
Hong Kong Premier League
1-1 1-2 55 L
22/03 North District
Hong Kong Premier League
1-2 2-2 43 D
15/03 Tai Po
Hong Kong Premier League
0-1 0-1 810 L
28/02 Tai Po
Hong Kong Premier League
1-0 2-1 43 W

Kitchee

WWWLDLDWDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/09 Eastern District
Hong Kong Premier League
2-0 4-1 66 W
29/08 North District
Hong Kong Premier League
0-0 0-0 43 D
22/08 HK Rangers FC
Hong Kong Premier League
1-0 3-2 86 W
17/05 Eastern SC
Hong Kong Premier League
2-3 4-4 67 D
02/05 Tai Po
Hong Kong Premier League
0-2 0-3 102 L
25/04 North District
Hong Kong Premier League
2-0 2-2 D
18/04 Lee Man FC
Hong Kong Premier League
1-3 1-4 77 L
12/04 HK Rangers FC
Hong Kong Premier League
1-0 2-0 54 W
21/03 Eastern SC
Hong Kong Premier League
0-1 2-1 125 W
14/03 Kowloon City
Hong Kong Premier League
2-0 4-0 124 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southern District vs Kitchee?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kitchee win (60%). Probabilities: Southern District 20%, draw 21%, Kitchee 60%.

How many goals are expected in Southern District vs Kitchee?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Southern District 1.36 · Kitchee 2.4), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Southern District vs Kitchee?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.