Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 12/09, 10:00

Prediction: Tai Po vs Hong Kong FC

Team pages: Tai Po · Hong Kong FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

Tai Po3.03

Hong Kong FC1.03

1X2

79% 13% 9%

Tai Po Draw Hong Kong FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Tai Po 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Hong Kong FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tai Po 4–1–1 Hong Kong FC (6 last)

Tai Po2-0Hong Kong FC
Hong Kong FC2-2Tai Po
Hong Kong FC0-3Tai Po
Hong Kong FC1-3Tai Po
Hong Kong FC0-4Tai Po
Hong Kong FC2-0Tai Po

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tai Po 1618 · Hong Kong FC 1408

	Tai Po	Draw	Hong Kong FC
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	80%	11%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tai Po (rating 1618 vs 1408).
H2H favours Tai Po: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tai Po	Hong Kong FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.2	1.1 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	1.3 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.5	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.14

X8.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.90

2 (+2.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:32 +2’	1.14	8.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tai Po 4–1–1 Hong Kong FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Hong Kong Premier League	Tai Po	2-0 HT 1-0	Hong Kong FC
07/12/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Hong Kong FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Tai Po
15/11/25 Hong Kong League Cup	Hong Kong FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Tai Po
22/03/25 Hong Kong Sapling Cup	Hong Kong FC	1-3 HT 0-1	Tai Po
09/02/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Hong Kong FC	0-4 HT 0-2	Tai Po
05/01/25 Hong Kong Premier League	Hong Kong FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Tai Po

Standings · Hong Kong Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lee Man FC	3	3	0	0	9	0	9
2	North District	3	2	1	0	7	0	7
3	Kitchee	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
4	Tai Po	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
5	Southern District	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
6	Shatin	3	1	0	2	3	9	3
7	Eastern District	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
8	Eastern SC	3	1	0	2	6	7	3
9	HK Rangers FC	3	0	0	3	5	9	0
10	Hong Kong FC	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
11	Kowloon City	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tai Po	Hong Kong FC
HK Rangers FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Eastern SC	4-1 W	0-5 L
Lee Man FC	3-2 W	0-3 L
Kitchee	3-0 W	2-5 L
Eastern District	3-1 W	2-1 W
Southern District	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tai Po (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tai Po

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
30/08	Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	4-1	10	5	W
23/08	North District Hong Kong Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
17/05	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	2-2	3-2	9	5	W
09/05	Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	4-2	2	3	W
02/05	Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
18/04	North District Hong Kong Premier League	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
11/04	Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
22/03	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
15/03	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	10	W

Hong Kong FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
22/08	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	2-3	2	4	L
16/05	Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/05	HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
03/05	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
25/04	Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
15/03	Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
01/03	Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League	1-3	2-5	4	2	L
22/02	Southern District Hong Kong Premier League	1-0	1-2	6	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tai Po vs Hong Kong FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tai Po win (79%). Probabilities: Tai Po 79%, draw 13%, Hong Kong FC 9%.

How many goals are expected in Tai Po vs Hong Kong FC?

The model expects 4.05 goals (Tai Po 3.03 · Hong Kong FC 1.03), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Tai Po vs Hong Kong FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.