Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: AD Machico vs Florgrade FC

Team pages: AD Machico · Florgrade FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

AD Machico1.22

Florgrade FC0.74

1X2

47% 30% 22%

AD Machico Draw Florgrade FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Machico 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDWDW

Florgrade FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWDWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Machico 1559 · Florgrade FC 1526

	AD Machico	Draw	Florgrade FC
Our model	46%	32%	21%
Market	48%	29%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Machico	Florgrade FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.4	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	13/50/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.10

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.87 ★
X	3.00 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:54 +24’	2.15	3.00	3.20
05:30 +28’	1.85▼	3.10▲	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:31 +44’	1.87	3.09	3.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	4	4	0	0	8	0	12
2	AD Machico	5	3	2	0	9	2	11
3	AD Camacha	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	AD Sanjoanense	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
5	AD Castro Daire	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
6	Florgrade FC	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
7	Salgueiros	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
8	Cinfaes	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
9	Uniao de Lamas	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Beira Mar	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
11	FC Alpendorada	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
12	Estrela da Calheta FC	4	0	2	2	2	8	2
13	Guarda Desportiva	5	0	1	4	2	6	1
14	UD Sousense	4	0	1	3	3	8	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Machico	Florgrade FC
Salgueiros	1-1 D	0-2 L
Beira Mar	2-0 W	1-0 W
AD Camacha	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AD Machico (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Machico

WWLWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	2-1	8	2	W
04/09	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	9	6	D
23/08	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
15/08	Estrela da Calheta FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
08/04	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
22/03	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	8	5	L
15/03	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	11	W
08/03	Brito SC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	11	W

Florgrade FC

DWLDLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
06/09	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
23/08	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
12/04	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-4	8	1	L
04/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/03	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
15/03	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
08/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Machico vs Florgrade FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Machico win (47%). Probabilities: AD Machico 47%, draw 30%, Florgrade FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in AD Machico vs Florgrade FC?

The model expects 1.96 goals (AD Machico 1.22 · Florgrade FC 0.74), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Machico vs Florgrade FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.