Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 11/10, 16:00

Prediction: Serpa vs SU Sintrense

Team pages: Serpa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Serpa1.03

SU Sintrense1.25

1X2

30% 30% 41%

Serpa Draw SU Sintrense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Serpa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLWDD

SU Sintrense 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Serpa 1–2–3 SU Sintrense (6 last)

Serpa1-0SU Sintrense
SU Sintrense1-1Serpa
Serpa0-1SU Sintrense
SU Sintrense1-0Serpa
Serpa2-2SU Sintrense
SU Sintrense2-1Serpa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Serpa 1482 · SU Sintrense 1570

	Serpa	Draw	SU Sintrense
Our model	29%	31%	40%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SU Sintrense (rating 1482 vs 1570).
H2H favours SU Sintrense: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Serpa	SU Sintrense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/67/22%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.6	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.6	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +7’	3.00	3.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Serpa 1–2–3 SU Sintrense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Serpa	1-0 HT 0-0	SU Sintrense
02/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	SU Sintrense	1-1 HT 0-0	Serpa
29/03/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Serpa	0-1	SU Sintrense
08/12/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	SU Sintrense	1-0 HT 0-0	Serpa
24/03/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Serpa	2-2	SU Sintrense
10/12/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	SU Sintrense	2-1 HT 0-0	Serpa

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SU Sintrense	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
2	Imortal DC	4	2	1	1	7	3	7
3	Amora	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
4	Real Sport Clube Queluz	4	1	3	0	8	7	6
5	Juventude de Evora	4	1	2	1	6	7	5
6	Serpa	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
7	GD Lagoa	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
8	Alcochetense	4	1	2	1	7	6	5
9	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	1	2	6	9	4
10	GD Portel	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
11	Juventude Desportiva Lajense	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
12	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense	4	0	2	2	2	8	2
13	Santa Clara B	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
14	SU 1 Dezembro	2	0	1	1	1	6	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Serpa

DWLLLLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Real Sport Clube Queluz Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	1	10	D
13/09	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
16/08	Vitoria Setubal Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	4-2	–	–	W
18/04	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
12/04	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
04/04	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-3	2	8	L
22/03	Juventude de Evora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	0-3	8	6	L
15/03	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
08/03	SU Sintrense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/03	Portimonense B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

SU Sintrense

LWLWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Santa Clara B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	3-1	4	6	W
06/09	Imortal DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
23/08	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	4-0	9	6	W
16/08	GD Portel Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/04	Portimonense B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
12/04	AT Malveira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
04/04	Vasco Da Gama Vidigueira Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
22/03	Moncarapachense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
15/03	Comercio Industria Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
08/03	Serpa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Serpa vs SU Sintrense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SU Sintrense win (41%). Probabilities: Serpa 30%, draw 30%, SU Sintrense 41%.

How many goals are expected in Serpa vs SU Sintrense?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Serpa 1.03 · SU Sintrense 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Serpa vs SU Sintrense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.