Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 11/10, 16:00

Prediction: Cinfaes vs FC Alpendorada

Team pages: Cinfaes · FC Alpendorada

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Cinfaes1.35

FC Alpendorada0.97

1X2

44% 29% 26%

Cinfaes Draw FC Alpendorada

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cinfaes 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWDLD

FC Alpendorada 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Cinfaes 1–3–1 FC Alpendorada (5 last)

FC Alpendorada0-0Cinfaes
Cinfaes0-0FC Alpendorada
Cinfaes1-3FC Alpendorada
FC Alpendorada0-2Cinfaes
FC Alpendorada1-1Cinfaes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cinfaes 1532 · FC Alpendorada 1488

	Cinfaes	Draw	FC Alpendorada
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cinfaes (rating 1532 vs 1488).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cinfaes	FC Alpendorada
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +6’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cinfaes 1–3–1 FC Alpendorada

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	FC Alpendorada	0-0 HT 0-0	Cinfaes
04/10/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Alpendorada
06/04/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	1-3 HT 1-3	FC Alpendorada
15/12/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	FC Alpendorada	0-2 HT 0-0	Cinfaes
20/10/24 Portugal Cup	FC Alpendorada	1-1 HT 1-0	Cinfaes

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	4	4	0	0	8	0	12
2	AD Machico	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
3	AD Camacha	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	AD Castro Daire	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	Florgrade FC	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
6	Salgueiros	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
7	Cinfaes	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
8	AD Sanjoanense	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
8	Uniao de Lamas	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Beira Mar	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
11	FC Alpendorada	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
12	Estrela da Calheta FC	4	0	2	2	2	8	2
13	Guarda Desportiva	4	0	1	3	2	5	1
14	UD Sousense	4	0	1	3	3	8	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cinfaes	FC Alpendorada
Salgueiros	0-1 L	2-0 W
Beira Mar	2-2 D	0-1 L
GD Resende	2-0 W	3-4 L
Anadia	2-2 D	3-0 W
CD Gouveia	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cinfaes (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cinfaes

WDDWWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Estrela da Calheta FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	8	D
13/09	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
06/09	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-2	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	UD Sousense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	5-2	3	2	W
12/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
04/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
22/03	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
15/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	2	1	D
08/03	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	7	10	W

FC Alpendorada

LWWLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
06/09	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	1-3	8	6	L
23/08	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
16/08	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	3-4	5	0	L
12/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
04/04	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
22/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
15/03	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
08/03	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cinfaes vs FC Alpendorada?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cinfaes win (44%). Probabilities: Cinfaes 44%, draw 29%, FC Alpendorada 26%.

How many goals are expected in Cinfaes vs FC Alpendorada?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Cinfaes 1.35 · FC Alpendorada 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cinfaes vs FC Alpendorada?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.