Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 11/10, 16:00

Prediction: Mortagua FC vs Benfica e Castelo Branco

Team pages: Mortagua FC · Benfica e Castelo Branco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Mortagua FC1.29

Benfica e Castelo Branco1.14

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Mortagua FC Draw Benfica e Castelo Branco

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mortagua FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWWWWD

Benfica e Castelo Branco 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLWLWL

Head-to-head

Mortagua FC 0–3–3 Benfica e Castelo Branco (6 last)

Benfica e Castelo Branco3-1Mortagua FC
Mortagua FC1-1Benfica e Castelo Branco
Benfica e Castelo Branco1-1Mortagua FC
Mortagua FC0-0Benfica e Castelo Branco
Benfica e Castelo Branco2-0Mortagua FC
Mortagua FC1-2Benfica e Castelo Branco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mortagua FC 1499 · Benfica e Castelo Branco 1496

	Mortagua FC	Draw	Benfica e Castelo Branco
Our model	39%	30%	32%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Benfica e Castelo Branco: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mortagua FC	Benfica e Castelo Branco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	13/63/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	3.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:36 +37’	2.30	3.10	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mortagua FC 0–3–3 Benfica e Castelo Branco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	3-1 HT 1-1	Mortagua FC
10/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Mortagua FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Benfica e Castelo Branco
16/02/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	1-1 HT 1-1	Mortagua FC
06/10/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Mortagua FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Benfica e Castelo Branco
21/01/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	2-0 HT 0-0	Mortagua FC
03/09/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Mortagua FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Benfica e Castelo Branco

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mortagua FC	4	3	1	0	9	4	10
2	O Elvas	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
3	Oliveira Hospital	4	3	0	1	6	4	9
4	CF Os Marialvas	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
5	UD da Serra	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
6	Naval 1893	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
7	AD Nogueirense	4	1	3	0	8	7	6
8	Benfica e Castelo Branco	4	2	0	2	7	9	6
9	Fatima	4	1	1	2	6	5	4
10	AT Malveira	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
11	Alverca B	4	1	0	3	6	4	3
12	Sertanense	4	0	2	2	3	7	2
13	Fazendense	4	0	1	3	5	12	1
14	GD Os Nazarenos	4	0	0	4	1	10	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mortagua FC	Benfica e Castelo Branco
GD Vitoria de Sernache	0-1 L	0-0 D
AC Marinhense	1-0 W	1-0 W
Naval 1893	0-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mortagua FC

DLWLLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
23/08	Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	3-1	6	6	W
16/08	GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	3-1	–	–	W
18/04	Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-1	2-1	5	5	W
12/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
04/04	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
29/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
22/03	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
15/03	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	7	8	D

Benfica e Castelo Branco

WDDWLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-3	8	2	L
06/09	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
23/08	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-4	–	–	L
16/08	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	3-2	–	–	W
18/04	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-4	3	8	L
12/04	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
04/04	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
25/03	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
21/03	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
15/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mortagua FC vs Benfica e Castelo Branco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mortagua FC win (39%). Probabilities: Mortagua FC 39%, draw 29%, Benfica e Castelo Branco 32%.

How many goals are expected in Mortagua FC vs Benfica e Castelo Branco?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Mortagua FC 1.29 · Benfica e Castelo Branco 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mortagua FC vs Benfica e Castelo Branco?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.