Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 01/11, 16:00

Prediction: AD Machico vs AD Camacha

Team pages: AD Machico · AD Camacha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

AD Machico1.33

AD Camacha0.93

1X2

45% 29% 26%

AD Machico Draw AD Camacha

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Machico 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWDWWW

AD Camacha 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWWDWW

Head-to-head

AD Machico 0–5–1 AD Camacha (6 last)

AD Machico2-2AD Camacha
AD Camacha2-1AD Machico
AD Machico0-0AD Camacha
AD Machico1-1AD Camacha
AD Camacha0-0AD Machico
AD Camacha1-1AD Machico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Machico 1568 · AD Camacha 1541

	AD Machico	Draw	AD Camacha
Our model	45%	31%	25%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Machico	AD Camacha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.4	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/44/11%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:08 +5’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Machico 0–5–1 AD Camacha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Portugal Cup	AD Machico	2-2 HT 0-1	AD Camacha
22/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	2-1 HT 0-0	AD Machico
29/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Machico	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Camacha
19/01/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Machico	1-1 HT 1-1	AD Camacha
25/08/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Machico
05/02/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	1-1 HT 0-1	AD Machico

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	5	4	1	0	10	2	13
2	AD Machico	5	3	2	0	9	2	11
3	AD Camacha	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
4	AD Castro Daire	5	2	2	1	5	3	8
5	AD Sanjoanense	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
6	Salgueiros	5	1	4	0	4	3	7
7	Florgrade FC	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
8	Cinfaes	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
9	Uniao de Lamas	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
10	Estrela da Calheta FC	5	1	2	2	5	9	5
11	Beira Mar	5	0	4	1	6	8	4
12	FC Alpendorada	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
13	Guarda Desportiva	5	0	1	4	2	6	1
14	UD Sousense	5	0	1	4	4	11	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Machico	AD Camacha
Guarda Desportiva	1-0 W	2-2 D
Florgrade FC	4-0 W	1-0 W
FC Alpendorada	2-1 W	2-1 W
Salgueiros	1-1 D	1-1 D
CD Celoricense	0-0 D	1-2 L
Vilaverdense	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AD Machico (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Machico

LWDWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
10/10	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	4-0	4	7	W
13/09	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	2-1	8	2	W
04/09	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	9	6	D
23/08	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
15/08	Estrela da Calheta FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
08/04	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
22/03	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	8	5	L

AD Camacha

WLWLDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
11/10	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	1	7	W
13/09	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-2	7	3	D
06/09	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
23/08	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
16/08	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
12/04	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
29/03	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/03	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Machico vs AD Camacha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Machico win (45%). Probabilities: AD Machico 45%, draw 29%, AD Camacha 26%.

How many goals are expected in AD Machico vs AD Camacha?

The model expects 2.26 goals (AD Machico 1.33 · AD Camacha 0.93), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Machico vs AD Camacha?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.