Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 25/10, 16:00
Prediction: Benfica e Castelo Branco vs O Elvas
Team pages: Benfica e Castelo Branco · O Elvas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Benfica e Castelo Branco1.25
O Elvas1.22
1X2
Benfica e Castelo Branco
Draw
O Elvas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Benfica e Castelo Branco
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
O Elvas
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Benfica e Castelo Branco
0–2
O Elvas
(2 last)
- Benfica e Castelo Branco0-2O Elvas
- O Elvas3-0Benfica e Castelo Branco
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Benfica e Castelo Branco 1496 · O Elvas 1517
| Benfica e Castelo Branco | Draw | O Elvas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours O Elvas: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Benfica e Castelo Branco | O Elvas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/63/25% | 38/63/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2.1 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica e Castelo Branco 0–0–2 O Elvas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Benfica e Castelo Branco | 0-2 HT 0-1 | O Elvas |
| 15/09/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | O Elvas | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Benfica e Castelo Branco |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | CF Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortagua FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica e Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | AT Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Fatima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Alverca B | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | GD Os Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Benfica e Castelo Branco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/03 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/03 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
O Elvas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Moncarapachense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Comercio Industria Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Serpa Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 22/03 | Alcochetense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/03 | Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs O Elvas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Benfica e Castelo Branco win (36%). Probabilities: Benfica e Castelo Branco 36%, draw 29%, O Elvas 35%.
How many goals are expected in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs O Elvas?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Benfica e Castelo Branco 1.25 · O Elvas 1.22), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs O Elvas?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.