Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 01/11, 16:00
Prediction: Braganca vs FC Tirsense
Team pages: Braganca · FC Tirsense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Braganca1.44
FC Tirsense1.17
1X2
Braganca
Draw
FC Tirsense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Braganca
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
FC Tirsense
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Braganca
3–2–1
FC Tirsense
(6 last)
- FC Tirsense1-2Braganca
- Braganca2-2FC Tirsense
- FC Tirsense0-1Braganca
- Braganca1-0FC Tirsense
- FC Tirsense2-0Braganca
- Braganca2-2FC Tirsense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Braganca 1572 · FC Tirsense 1492
| Braganca | Draw | FC Tirsense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braganca (rating 1572 vs 1492).
- H2H favours Braganca: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Braganca | FC Tirsense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/63/0% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.3 | 2.4 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 7 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Braganca 3–2–1 FC Tirsense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | FC Tirsense | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Braganca |
| 10/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Braganca | 2-2 HT 2-0 | FC Tirsense |
| 26/01/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | FC Tirsense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Braganca |
| 01/09/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Braganca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Tirsense |
| 19/03/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | FC Tirsense | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Braganca |
| 04/12/22 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Braganca | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Tirsense |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaves B | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Braga B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Limianos | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Braganca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Tirsense | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Montalegre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Vila Mea | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | CD Celoricense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | AD Ponte da Barca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | SC Maria da Fonte | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Brito SC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 14 | Futebol Clube de Vinhais | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Braganca | FC Tirsense |
|---|---|---|
| Maia Lidador | 1-0 W | 3-5 L |
| Braga B | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Brito SC | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Rebordosa | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Braganca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | SC Maria da Fonte Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Montalegre Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 13/09 | AD Ponte da Barca Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Maia Lidador Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Braga B Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | Brito SC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 10/05 | Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
FC Tirsense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Maia Lidador Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
3-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/10 | Braga B Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Brito SC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Futebol Clube de Vinhais Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Chaves B Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Limianos Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Desportivo Moncao Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | SC Mirandela Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Braganca vs FC Tirsense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Braganca win (43%). Probabilities: Braganca 43%, draw 28%, FC Tirsense 30%.
How many goals are expected in Braganca vs FC Tirsense?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Braganca 1.44 · FC Tirsense 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Braganca vs FC Tirsense?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.