Prediction: UD da Serra vs AT Malveira
Team pages: UD da Serra · AT Malveira
| UD da Serra | Draw | AT Malveira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UD da Serra (rating 1570 vs 1452).
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UD da Serra | AT Malveira | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/63/25% | 25/25/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.9 | 2.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | CF Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortagua FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica e Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | AT Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Fatima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Alverca B | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | GD Os Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UD da Serra | AT Malveira |
|---|---|---|
| Oliveira Hospital | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| CF Os Marialvas | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UD da Serra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 29/03 | CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/03 | AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
AT Malveira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 26/04 | Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UD da Serra vs AT Malveira?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UD da Serra win (43%). Probabilities: UD da Serra 43%, draw 27%, AT Malveira 30%.
How many goals are expected in UD da Serra vs AT Malveira?
The model expects 3 goals (UD da Serra 1.64 · AT Malveira 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in UD da Serra vs AT Malveira?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.