Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Naval 1893 vs Mortagua FC

Team pages: Naval 1893 · Mortagua FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Naval 18931.31

Mortagua FC0.87

1X2

46% 29% 24%

Naval 1893 Draw Mortagua FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Naval 1893 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Mortagua FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Naval 1893 1–1–0 Mortagua FC (2 last)

Naval 18932-0Mortagua FC
Mortagua FC2-2Naval 1893

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naval 1893 1529 · Mortagua FC 1488

	Naval 1893	Draw	Mortagua FC
Our model	46%	31%	24%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naval 1893 (rating 1529 vs 1488).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naval 1893	Mortagua FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/63/0%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	1.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:45 +13’	1.91	3.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Naval 1893 1–1–0 Mortagua FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Naval 1893	2-0 HT 0-0	Mortagua FC
29/11/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Mortagua FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Naval 1893

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oliveira Hospital	5	4	0	1	9	5	12
2	UD da Serra	5	3	2	0	8	5	11
3	CF Os Marialvas	5	3	1	1	8	2	10
4	Mortagua FC	5	3	1	1	9	5	10
5	O Elvas	5	3	1	1	7	4	10
6	Benfica e Castelo Branco	5	3	0	2	8	9	9
7	Naval 1893	5	2	1	2	6	4	7
8	AD Nogueirense	5	1	4	0	8	7	7
9	AT Malveira	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
10	Fatima	5	1	1	3	7	8	4
11	Alverca B	5	1	0	4	7	7	3
12	Sertanense	5	0	3	2	3	7	3
13	GD Os Nazarenos	5	1	0	4	4	11	3
14	Fazendense	5	0	1	4	6	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naval 1893	Mortagua FC
Benfica e Castelo Branco	4-1 W	0-1 L
UD da Serra	1-2 L	1-1 D
GD Vitoria de Sernache	2-0 W	0-1 L
CF Os Marialvas	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Naval 1893 (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naval 1893

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	AD Nogueirense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
13/09	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
06/09	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
23/08	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	4-1	–	–	W
16/08	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/04	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
04/04	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
22/03	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
15/03	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	2	8	W

Mortagua FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Benfica e Castelo Branco Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
13/09	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	Fazendense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
23/08	Sertanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	3-1	6	6	W
16/08	GD Os Nazarenos Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	3-1	–	–	W
18/04	Electrico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-1	2-1	5	5	W
12/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
04/04	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
29/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
22/03	Naval 1893 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naval 1893 vs Mortagua FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Naval 1893 win (46%). Probabilities: Naval 1893 46%, draw 29%, Mortagua FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Naval 1893 vs Mortagua FC?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Naval 1893 1.31 · Mortagua FC 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Naval 1893 vs Mortagua FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.