Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Alcochetense vs Serpa

Team pages: Alcochetense · Serpa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Alcochetense1.44

Serpa1.13

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Alcochetense Draw Serpa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alcochetense 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Serpa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDDDW

Head-to-head

Alcochetense 1–1 Serpa (2 last)

Serpa2-1Alcochetense
Alcochetense1-0Serpa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alcochetense 1516 · Serpa 1496

	Alcochetense	Draw	Serpa
Our model	43%	29%	28%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alcochetense	Serpa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/63/0%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.2	1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	6.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +6’	2.10	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alcochetense 1–0–1 Serpa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Serpa	2-1 HT 1-0	Alcochetense
09/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Alcochetense	1-0 HT 1-0	Serpa

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SU Sintrense	5	3	1	1	11	5	10
2	Real Sport Clube Queluz	6	2	4	0	13	9	10
3	Imortal DC	5	3	1	1	10	3	10
4	Serpa	5	2	3	0	8	4	9
5	Amora	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
6	Juventude de Evora	6	2	2	2	10	11	8
7	GD Lagoa	5	1	3	1	4	4	6
8	Santa Clara B	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
9	GD Portel	6	0	5	1	7	10	5
10	Alcochetense	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	2	2	7	10	5
12	SU 1 Dezembro	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
13	Juventude Desportiva Lajense	5	1	1	3	7	8	4
14	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense	5	0	2	3	2	11	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alcochetense	Serpa
Juventude de Evora	2-3 L	0-3 L
GD Lagoa	2-1 W	0-0 D
Clube Oriental Lisboa	1-1 D	1-2 L
Alverca B	1-0 W	0-1 L
Louletano DC	0-1 L	1-2 L
O Elvas	2-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Alcochetense (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alcochetense

WLWDWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Santa Clara B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	10	6	L
27/09	SC Mineiro Aljustrelense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/09	Imortal DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	6	10	D
23/08	GD Portel Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-2	8	9	D
16/08	Juventude de Evora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-3	–	–	L
18/04	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	10	9	W
12/04	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
04/04	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
28/03	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
22/03	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	5	4	W

Serpa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	SU Sintrense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
26/09	Real Sport Clube Queluz Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-1	1	10	D
13/09	GD Lagoa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/09	SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	Vitoria Setubal Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	4-2	–	–	W
18/04	Clube Oriental Lisboa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
12/04	Alverca B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
04/04	O Elvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-3	2	8	L
22/03	Juventude de Evora Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	0-3	8	6	L
15/03	Louletano DC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alcochetense vs Serpa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alcochetense win (43%). Probabilities: Alcochetense 43%, draw 29%, Serpa 28%.

How many goals are expected in Alcochetense vs Serpa?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Alcochetense 1.44 · Serpa 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alcochetense vs Serpa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.