Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Florgrade FC vs Cinfaes

Team pages: Florgrade FC · Cinfaes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Florgrade FC1.1

Cinfaes1.08

1X2

35% 30% 34%

Florgrade FC Draw Cinfaes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Florgrade FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDWLWL

Cinfaes 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWDLDD

Head-to-head

Florgrade FC 1–1–0 Cinfaes (2 last)

Cinfaes1-1Florgrade FC
Florgrade FC1-0Cinfaes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Florgrade FC 1495 · Cinfaes 1516

	Florgrade FC	Draw	Cinfaes
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Florgrade FC	Cinfaes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/50/38%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +8’	2.50	3.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Florgrade FC 1–1–0 Cinfaes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	1-1 HT 0-0	Florgrade FC
14/09/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Florgrade FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Cinfaes

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	5	4	1	0	10	2	13
2	AD Machico	5	3	2	0	9	2	11
3	AD Camacha	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
4	AD Castro Daire	5	2	2	1	5	3	8
5	AD Sanjoanense	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
6	Salgueiros	5	1	4	0	4	3	7
7	Florgrade FC	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
8	Cinfaes	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
9	Uniao de Lamas	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
10	Estrela da Calheta FC	5	1	2	2	5	9	5
11	Beira Mar	5	0	4	1	6	8	4
12	FC Alpendorada	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
13	Guarda Desportiva	5	0	1	4	2	6	1
14	UD Sousense	5	0	1	4	4	11	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Florgrade FC	Cinfaes
Aparecida FC	1-4 L	5-2 W
GD Resende	1-1 D	2-0 W
Salgueiros	0-2 L	0-1 L
Beira Mar	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cinfaes (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Florgrade FC

WLDLWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	0-4	3	7	L
13/09	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
06/09	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
23/08	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
12/04	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-4	8	1	L
04/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/03	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
15/03	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	3	W

Cinfaes

DDWWWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
27/09	Estrela da Calheta FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	8	D
13/09	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
06/09	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-2	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	UD Sousense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	5-2	3	2	W
12/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
04/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
22/03	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
15/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-2	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Florgrade FC vs Cinfaes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Florgrade FC win (35%). Probabilities: Florgrade FC 35%, draw 30%, Cinfaes 34%.

How many goals are expected in Florgrade FC vs Cinfaes?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Florgrade FC 1.1 · Cinfaes 1.08), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Florgrade FC vs Cinfaes?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.