Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 19/09, 19:45

Prediction: Artsul Futebol Clube vs Carapebus/Campos

Team pages: Artsul Futebol Clube · Carapebus/Campos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Artsul Futebol Clube1.86

Carapebus/Campos0.74

1X2

63% 23% 14%

Artsul Futebol Clube Draw Carapebus/Campos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Artsul Futebol Clube 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLLDWW

Carapebus/Campos 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDLLL

Head-to-head

Artsul Futebol Clube 1–1–0 Carapebus/Campos (2 last)

Artsul Futebol Clube3-1Carapebus/Campos
Carapebus/Campos1-1Artsul Futebol Clube

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Artsul Futebol Clube 1536 · Carapebus/Campos 1421

	Artsul Futebol Clube	Draw	Carapebus/Campos
Our model	63%	24%	13%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Artsul Futebol Clube (rating 1536 vs 1421).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 13.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Artsul Futebol Clube	Carapebus/Campos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/56/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.8 / 6.6	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.6 / 0.3	6.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.10

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	6.50 → 6.25▼	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:06 +4’	1.38	4.10	6.50
22:45 +18’	1.40▲	4.10	6.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Artsul Futebol Clube 1–1–0 Carapebus/Campos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Artsul Futebol Clube	3-1 HT 2-1	Carapebus/Campos
11/08/18 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Carapebus/Campos	1-1 HT 1-0	Artsul Futebol Clube

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Duque de Caxias FC	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
2	Artsul Futebol Clube	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Niteroiense	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
4	Goytacaz	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Macae Esporte FC	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	Campo Grande AC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
7	Sao Cristovao RJ	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
8	Petropolis	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Serrano	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
10	Nova Cidade	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
11	Carapebus/Campos	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
12	Audax Rio	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Artsul Futebol Clube	Carapebus/Campos
Campo Grande AC	3-2 W	0-1 L
Sao Cristovao RJ	1-1 D	0-2 L
Petropolis	0-1 L	0-3 L
Serrano	1-2 L	0-0 D
Nova Cidade	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Artsul Futebol Clube (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Artsul Futebol Clube

WWDDWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	3-2	–	–	W
06/09	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	5	15	W
08/11	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-1	9	7	D
05/11	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
01/11	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
25/10	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-1	3-1	12	9	W
18/10	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
10/10	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-1	2-2	10	8	D
04/10	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
28/09	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	9	8	W

Carapebus/Campos

LLLDLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
05/09	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	7	9	L
08/11	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
05/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	1-1	3	9	D
01/11	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
25/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-2	1-3	4	9	L
18/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
04/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
27/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Artsul Futebol Clube vs Carapebus/Campos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Artsul Futebol Clube win (63%). Probabilities: Artsul Futebol Clube 63%, draw 23%, Carapebus/Campos 14%.

How many goals are expected in Artsul Futebol Clube vs Carapebus/Campos?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Artsul Futebol Clube 1.86 · Carapebus/Campos 0.74), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Artsul Futebol Clube vs Carapebus/Campos?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.