Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 26/09, 19:45

Prediction: Duque de Caxias FC vs Niteroiense

Team pages: Duque de Caxias FC · Niteroiense

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Duque de Caxias FC1.27
Niteroiense1.03
1X2
41% 31% 29%
Duque de Caxias FC Draw Niteroiense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Duque de Caxias FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)
WWDDWWLWWW
Niteroiense 4-4-2 (W-D-L)
LDLDWDWWDW
Head-to-head
Duque de Caxias FC 0–1–0 Niteroiense (1 last)
  • Niteroiense0-0Duque de Caxias FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Duque de Caxias FC 1547 · Niteroiense 1526
Duque de Caxias FCDrawNiteroiense
Our model41%31%29%
Market41%31%29%
Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 13.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Duque de Caxias FCNiteroiense
Goals for / against (FT)1.6 / 0.61.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.20.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/50/10%30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.2 / 41.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)6.4 / 0.16.8 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Duque de Caxias FC 0–1–0 Niteroiense

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DateHomeScoreAway
05/11/25
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
Niteroiense0-0
HT 0-0
Duque de Caxias FC

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Duque de Caxias FC 3300 819
2 Artsul Futebol Clube 3210 527
3 Niteroiense 3210 417
4 Campo Grande AC 3201 546
5 Petropolis 3120 315
6 Sao Cristovao RJ 4121 335
7 Goytacaz 3111 124
7 Serrano 3111 124
9 Macae Esporte FC 3102 333
10 Nova Cidade 3012 261
11 Carapebus/Campos 4013 161
12 Audax Rio 3003 050

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentDuque de Caxias FCNiteroiense
Nova Cidade 3-0 W 1-0 W
Bonsucesso FC 0-2 L 2-3 L
Paduano EC 2-1 W 5-1 W
Friburguense 1-0 W 1-0 W
Record vs common 3 W 0 D 1 L 3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Niteroiense (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Duque de Caxias FC

WWDDWWLWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/09 Sao Cristovao RJ
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-0 1-0 27 W
11/09 Carapebus/Campos
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
2-0 4-1 41 W
05/09 Nova Cidade
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-0 3-0 19 W
22/11 Bonsucesso FC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-1 0-2 37 L
15/11 Bonsucesso FC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-0 1-0 59 W
08/11 Carapebus/Campos
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-0 2-0 84 W
05/11 Niteroiense
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-0 0-0 57 D
01/11 Nova Cidade
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-1 2-2 18 D
25/10 Paduano EC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-0 2-1 77 W
18/10 Friburguense
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-0 1-0 –– W

Niteroiense

LDLDWDWWDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/09 Nova Cidade
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-0 1-0 28 W
12/09 Petropolis
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-0 1-1 07 D
05/09 Serrano
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-0 2-0 44 W
08/11 Paduano EC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-1 5-1 37 W
05/11 Duque de Caxias FC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-0 0-0 107 D
01/11 Friburguense
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-0 1-0 47 W
24/10 Campo Grande AC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
0-1 1-1 –– D
18/10 Bonsucesso FC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
2-1 2-3 49 L
10/10 Artsul Futebol Clube
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-2 2-2 38 D
04/10 Serrano
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
1-1 1-3 37 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Duque de Caxias FC vs Niteroiense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Duque de Caxias FC win (41%). Probabilities: Duque de Caxias FC 41%, draw 31%, Niteroiense 29%.

How many goals are expected in Duque de Caxias FC vs Niteroiense?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Duque de Caxias FC 1.27 · Niteroiense 1.03), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Duque de Caxias FC vs Niteroiense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.