Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 19/09, 19:45

Prediction: Sao Cristovao RJ vs Duque de Caxias FC

Team pages: Sao Cristovao RJ · Duque de Caxias FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Sao Cristovao RJ1.02

Duque de Caxias FC1.02

1X2

34% 32% 34%

Sao Cristovao RJ Draw Duque de Caxias FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Cristovao RJ 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDLLDD

Duque de Caxias FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWLWW

Head-to-head

Sao Cristovao RJ 1–1 Duque de Caxias FC (2 last)

Sao Cristovao RJ2-0Duque de Caxias FC
Duque de Caxias FC3-1Sao Cristovao RJ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Cristovao RJ 1529 · Duque de Caxias FC 1524

	Sao Cristovao RJ	Draw	Duque de Caxias FC
Our model	33%	33%	33%
Market	35%	31%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 13.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Cristovao RJ	Duque de Caxias FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.1	6.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X2.90

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.68
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.38 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.75 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:57 +12’	2.80	2.90	2.38
14:16 +3’	2.55▼	2.90	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:15 +85’	2.65	2.64	2.72
17:47 +60’	2.68▲	2.67▲	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Cristovao RJ 1–0–1 Duque de Caxias FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Sao Cristovao RJ	2-0 HT 1-0	Duque de Caxias FC
28/05/17 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Sao Cristovao RJ

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Duque de Caxias FC	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
2	Artsul Futebol Clube	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Niteroiense	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
4	Goytacaz	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Macae Esporte FC	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	Campo Grande AC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
7	Sao Cristovao RJ	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
8	Petropolis	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Serrano	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
10	Nova Cidade	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
11	Carapebus/Campos	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
12	Audax Rio	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Cristovao RJ	Duque de Caxias FC
Nova Cidade	2-2 D	3-0 W
Paduano EC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Friburguense	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Cristovao RJ (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Cristovao RJ

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
05/09	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
22/11	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
15/11	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
08/11	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
05/11	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
01/11	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	5	11	W
25/10	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	3-1	2	7	W
18/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
11/10	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	6	10	W

Duque de Caxias FC

LWWDDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
05/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	3-0	1	9	W
22/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
15/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
08/11	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
05/11	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/11	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
25/10	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
18/10	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	6	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Cristovao RJ vs Duque de Caxias FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Cristovao RJ win (34%). Probabilities: Sao Cristovao RJ 34%, draw 32%, Duque de Caxias FC 34%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Cristovao RJ vs Duque de Caxias FC?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Sao Cristovao RJ 1.02 · Duque de Caxias FC 1.02), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Cristovao RJ vs Duque de Caxias FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.