Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 19/09, 19:45

Prediction: Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade

Team pages: Niteroiense · Nova Cidade

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Niteroiense1.74

Nova Cidade0.74

1X2

60% 25% 14%

Niteroiense Draw Nova Cidade

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Niteroiense 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Nova Cidade 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Niteroiense 0–1–0 Nova Cidade (1 last)

Nova Cidade0-0Niteroiense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Niteroiense 1527 · Nova Cidade 1509

	Niteroiense	Draw	Nova Cidade
Our model	60%	25%	14%
Market	60%	25%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 14.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Niteroiense	Nova Cidade
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	11/78/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.7	2.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.3 / 0.3	7.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.48▼	Bet365 1.48
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.71 ★
2	5.50 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:05 +5’	1.53	3.50	5.50
14:16 +3’	1.48▼	3.50	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:18 +83’	1.72	3.13	4.44
13:14 +66’	1.46▼	3.71▲	5.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Niteroiense 0–1–0 Nova Cidade

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Nova Cidade	0-0 HT 0-0	Niteroiense

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Duque de Caxias FC	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
2	Artsul Futebol Clube	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Niteroiense	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
4	Goytacaz	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Macae Esporte FC	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	Campo Grande AC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
7	Sao Cristovao RJ	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
8	Petropolis	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Serrano	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
10	Nova Cidade	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
11	Carapebus/Campos	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
12	Audax Rio	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Niteroiense	Nova Cidade
Petropolis	1-1 D	0-1 L
Serrano	2-0 W	1-0 W
Duque de Caxias FC	0-0 D	0-3 L
Friburguense	1-0 W	1-0 W
Campo Grande AC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Bonsucesso FC	2-3 L	0-1 L
Artsul Futebol Clube	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Niteroiense (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Niteroiense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	0	7	D
05/09	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
08/11	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	5-1	3	7	W
05/11	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	10	7	D
01/11	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-1	2-3	4	9	L
10/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
04/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	1-3	3	7	L
27/09	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	3-2	2	13	W

Nova Cidade

WLWDLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	2-2	8	9	D
05/09	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-3	8	9	L
08/11	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
05/11	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
01/11	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
25/10	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
18/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
11/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Niteroiense win (60%). Probabilities: Niteroiense 60%, draw 25%, Nova Cidade 14%.

How many goals are expected in Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Niteroiense 1.74 · Nova Cidade 0.74), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.