Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 14/11, 19:00

Prediction: Goytacaz vs Niteroiense

Team pages: Goytacaz · Niteroiense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Goytacaz1.07

Niteroiense1.01

1X2

36% 30% 33%

Goytacaz Draw Niteroiense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Goytacaz 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWDWD

Niteroiense 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Goytacaz 1–0 Niteroiense (1 last)

Goytacaz2-0Niteroiense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Goytacaz 1551 · Niteroiense 1527

	Goytacaz	Draw	Niteroiense
Our model	35%	33%	32%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Goytacaz	Niteroiense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.2	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13	2.40	3.20	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Goytacaz 1–0–0 Niteroiense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/10/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Goytacaz	2-0 HT 1-0	Niteroiense

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Serrano	11	7	3	1	15	8	24
2	Niteroiense	11	7	1	3	13	9	22
3	Goytacaz	11	6	4	1	13	6	22
4	Duque de Caxias FC	11	6	2	3	18	10	20
5	Petropolis	11	4	7	0	14	9	19
6	Artsul Futebol Clube	11	4	5	2	14	10	17
7	Campo Grande AC	11	4	3	4	9	13	15
8	Macae Esporte FC	11	3	2	6	10	12	11
9	Sao Cristovao RJ	11	2	4	5	6	9	10
10	Nova Cidade	11	2	3	6	9	13	9
11	Audax Rio	11	1	2	8	6	15	5
12	Carapebus/Campos	11	1	2	8	9	22	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Goytacaz	Niteroiense
Artsul Futebol Clube	0-0 D	0-2 L
Campo Grande AC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Audax Rio	1-1 D	2-1 W
Carapebus/Campos	2-0 W	3-1 W
Sao Cristovao RJ	1-1 D	1-0 W
Duque de Caxias FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Nova Cidade	2-1 W	1-0 W
Petropolis	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Niteroiense (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Goytacaz

DLWWDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
31/10	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
24/10	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
21/10	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	2-0	5	7	W
17/10	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-1	6	10	D
03/10	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	2-1	5	6	W
26/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
19/09	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
12/09	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	4	6	D

Niteroiense

DWWWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
31/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-2	5	12	L
24/10	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
21/10	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
17/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
26/09	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
19/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
12/09	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	0	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Goytacaz vs Niteroiense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Goytacaz win (36%). Probabilities: Goytacaz 36%, draw 30%, Niteroiense 33%.

How many goals are expected in Goytacaz vs Niteroiense?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Goytacaz 1.07 · Niteroiense 1.01), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Goytacaz vs Niteroiense?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.