Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 24/10, 00:00

Prediction: Gimnasia LP vs Sarmiento

Team pages: Gimnasia LP · Sarmiento

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Gimnasia LP1.8

Sarmiento1.04

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Gimnasia LP Draw Sarmiento

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnasia LP 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDDDDW

Sarmiento 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDLWD

Head-to-head

Gimnasia LP 2–4–0 Sarmiento (6 last)

Sarmiento1-2Gimnasia LP
Sarmiento0-1Gimnasia LP
Gimnasia LP0-0Sarmiento
Sarmiento1-1Gimnasia LP
Gimnasia LP0-0Sarmiento
Sarmiento0-0Gimnasia LP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnasia LP 1546 · Sarmiento 1538

	Gimnasia LP	Draw	Sarmiento
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	53%	28%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gimnasia LP: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnasia LP	Sarmiento
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.2	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.30

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:01 +473’	1.75	3.30	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP 2–4–0 Sarmiento

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	1-2 HT 0-1	Gimnasia LP
04/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	0-1 HT 0-1	Gimnasia LP
30/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarmiento
18/10/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	1-1 HT 1-1	Gimnasia LP
27/05/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarmiento
28/08/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	0-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia LP

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rosario Central	13	7	4	2	20	11	25
2	Argentinos Jrs	13	7	4	2	17	11	25
3	Belgrano	12	6	4	2	14	7	22
4	Gimnasia LP	13	6	4	3	19	18	22
5	Sarmiento	12	6	2	4	21	18	20
6	Huracan	13	5	4	4	12	12	19
7	Independiente Rivadavia	13	5	4	4	17	21	19
8	Barracas Central	12	5	3	4	10	9	18
9	River Plate	12	5	2	5	15	13	17
10	Atlético Tucumán	13	3	5	5	12	13	14
11	CA Tigre	13	3	4	6	13	15	13
12	Banfield	13	3	4	6	14	19	13
13	Racing Club	12	3	2	7	13	19	11
14	CA Aldosivi	12	2	2	8	13	20	8
15	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	12	1	3	8	6	16	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnasia LP	Sarmiento
Huracan	2-1 W	2-0 W
Atlético Tucumán	1-1 D	2-1 W
Independiente Rivadavia	1-1 D	2-1 W
Estudiantes LP	0-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sarmiento (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnasia LP

WLLWWDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
09/10	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
03/10	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
19/09	Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
13/09	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
05/09	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
29/08	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
22/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
15/08	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-4	2	8	L
09/08	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	2	7	W

Sarmiento

WWWWLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
09/10	CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	3-1	1	8	W
19/09	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
13/09	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
04/09	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/08	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
23/08	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
16/08	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	9	7	W
08/08	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
03/08	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	2-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP vs Sarmiento?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnasia LP win (53%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP 53%, draw 27%, Sarmiento 20%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP vs Sarmiento?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Gimnasia LP 1.8 · Sarmiento 1.04), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP vs Sarmiento?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.