Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 01/11, 19:00
Prediction: Boca Juniors vs River Plate
Team pages: Boca Juniors · River Plate
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Boca Juniors1.31
River Plate1.04
1X2
Boca Juniors
Draw
River Plate
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Boca Juniors
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
River Plate
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boca Juniors
3–1–2
River Plate
(6 last)
- River Plate0-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors2-0River Plate
- River Plate2-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors0-1River Plate
- River Plate2-3Boca Juniors
- River Plate1-1Boca Juniors
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boca Juniors 1614 · River Plate 1551
| Boca Juniors | Draw | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 30% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (rating 1614 vs 1551).
- H2H favours Boca Juniors: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boca Juniors | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 80/0/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.1 | 3.1 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors 3–1–2 River Plate
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 09/11/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 2-0 HT 1-0 | River Plate |
| 27/04/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 21/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 0-1 HT 0-1 | River Plate |
| 21/04/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 25/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | River Plate | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Argentinos Jrs | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 28 |
| 3 | Gimnasia LP | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 25 |
| 4 | River Plate | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Belgrano | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 22 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 22 |
| 7 | Sarmiento | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 21 |
| 8 | Huracan | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 19 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 17 |
| 11 | Banfield | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 14 |
| 12 | CA Tigre | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 13 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 12 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 11 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
River Plate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/10 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors vs River Plate?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors win (41%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors 41%, draw 30%, River Plate 28%.
How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors vs River Plate?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Boca Juniors 1.31 · River Plate 1.04), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs River Plate?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.