Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 31/10, 23:15
Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo
Team pages: Velez Sarsfield · San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.96Total
Velez Sarsfield1.24
San Lorenzo0.72
1X2
Velez Sarsfield
Draw
San Lorenzo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Velez Sarsfield
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
San Lorenzo
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Velez Sarsfield
2–3–1
San Lorenzo
(6 last)
- San Lorenzo0-0Velez Sarsfield
- San Lorenzo1-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-0San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-1Velez Sarsfield
- San Lorenzo1-3Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-0San Lorenzo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Velez Sarsfield 1538 · San Lorenzo 1506
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 32% | 20% |
| Market | 48% | 31% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Velez Sarsfield: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Velez Sarsfield | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.9 | 1.5 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Sarsfield 2–3–1 San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 08/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 08/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 14/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 07/08/24 Argentina Cup | San Lorenzo | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 29/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 27 |
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 6 | Newell's | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 20 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 23 | 17 |
| 11 | Estudiantes LP | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 14 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 14 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 12 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 23 | 10 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Velez Sarsfield | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Newell's | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Estudiantes LP | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Riestra | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Defensa y Justicia | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 12/10 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 06/10 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 21/09 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/08 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 14/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Sarsfield win (48%). Probabilities: Velez Sarsfield 48%, draw 31%, San Lorenzo 21%.
How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
The model expects 1.96 goals (Velez Sarsfield 1.24 · San Lorenzo 0.72), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.